There is analysis that the Iran war could become a turning point for reshaping the global energy supply chain, which has relied excessively on the Middle East oil cartel.
On the 12th (local time), CNN in the United States reported, "This war will push the world to further strengthen and diversify energy supply chains," adding, "There is also a possibility that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will be downsized or dismantled, which could result in lower oil and gas prices."
Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil and natural gas shipments pass, has been under blockade for more than two months. That is because Iran has threatened tankers transiting the strait by deploying mines, drones and fast boats. This disrupted crude supply and demand, and the Asian and European markets, which have a high dependence on Middle Eastern crude, suffered a heavy blow.
However, CNN analyzed that this situation has instead exposed the structural vulnerabilities of the global energy supply chain and will bring positive results in the long term. It said a reorganization of the supply chain could take place to resolve a situation in which a single strait becomes a bottleneck for the world economy and to reduce the risk that Iran could sway the global crude market.
The most likely scenario is that Middle Eastern countries will push to build oil and gas pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz via Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, a U.S. asset management firm, said, "These countries are not foolish. They will develop pipelines going forward and greatly expand transport capacity," adding, "No one will ever again stake the future on the Strait of Hormuz."
Experts believe this war could, in the long run, become a catalyst for making energy supplies more stable and cheaper. Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at the global investment bank Baird, said, "Without this war, these changes might not have happened," adding, "It usually takes a shocking and unexpected external event to reinforce the need for change."
There is also a forecast that the United States would be in a relatively advantageous position if dependence on Middle Eastern energy declines. Natural gas is currently a key energy source for global power generation, and the United States has massive natural gas reserves and expanded export capacity. In addition, as the UAE, a major oil producer within OPEC, began withdrawal procedures this month, OPEC's market dominance is also being shaken.
Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at asset manager Tortoise Capital, assessed, "If dependence on OPEC is reduced and production is diversified to more reliable suppliers like the United States, global energy security will improve and it will also help stabilize prices."
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at U.S. consulting firm RSM, said, "Even if there is temporary economic disruption, if freedom of navigation is restored after the (war), supplies of oil, natural gas and refined fuels become smoother, and the cartel collapses, it could ultimately lead to a positive outcome," adding, "Such changes usually take 10 to 20 years to become apparent. They are hard to see in the fog of war."
There have, in fact, been multiple instances in which the global supply chain was reorganized in response to external shocks. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe, which had depended on Russian natural gas, diversified its supply chain. The tariff policy of the Donald Trump administration also brought about large-scale changes to the structure of global raw material procurement.