In Japan, after last year's "surge in rice prices," the possibility of an oversupply is growing this year, raising concerns among local farmers that the price of newly harvested rice could plunge.
On the 11th (local time), Asahi TV reported that rice planting is in full swing across Japan, but inventories are piling up as consumption slows. According to the outlet, private-sector rice stocks in Japan now total about 2.77 million tons, the highest level in the past decade. That is the exact opposite of last year, when a rice shortage occurred severe enough to be called the "Reiwa rice turmoil."
The Reiwa rice turmoil refers to the surge in rice prices that occurred in Japan from 2024 to 2025. It is a phrase likening the situation to the "rice riots" of 1918 that escalated into civil unrest due to famine. Over the past two years in Japan, fears over yields caused by extreme weather such as heat waves and the government's failure to forecast demand led to a rice shortage. At the time, wholesalers competed to buy from farms, offering high prices.
Locally, the aftershock of last year's spike in rice prices appears to be continuing. Rice that wholesalers bought at high prices is not selling due to weak consumption, causing inventories to build. The head of a rice wholesaler in Gifu Prefecture said, "Based on 60 kilograms, rice that was around 38,000 yen (356,519 won) has now fallen to around 20,000 yen (187,642 won)," adding, "We have no choice but to dispose of inventory even if it means taking a loss." The company alone recorded a deficit of about 150 million yen (1.4 billion won) in the first quarter of this year.
Not only wholesalers but also farmers are growing more anxious. Production costs such as fertilizer, pesticides, packaging materials, farm machinery, and labor continue to rise, but the price of newly harvested rice is increasingly likely to fall this year. Hosaka Kazuya, a farmer in Joetsu, Niigata Prefecture, a leading rice-producing region in Japan, said that around this time last year he was inundated with inquiries to buy new rice, but this year such contacts have almost stopped. He explained, "The government and agricultural organizations are also saying table rice is in oversupply and are asking us to switch to feed rice or brewing rice."
There is also criticism that policy confusion by the government is adding to market anxiety. Since the 1970s, the Japanese government has maintained a so-called "reduction policy" to control production in order to prevent rice prices from falling. After the rice shortage last summer, the government briefly pushed a stance of increasing production, but it has since shifted back to a policy of "adjusting production to match demand." Among farmers, complaints are mounting that it is hard to draw up production plans because the government's message keeps changing.
The Ishiba administration overhauled agricultural policy in August last year, saying it would lower prices by increasing rice production. But just two months later, in October last year, Norikazu Suzuki, the minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, said, "If there is a sense of shortage in the market, we increase production, and if there is oversupply, we curb production—that is production in line with demand," indicating that production should be adjusted.