As talks between the United States and Iran to end the war gain rapid momentum, analysis suggests that the supreme leader's prolonged absence is emerging as a variable in the negotiations. The new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not appeared in public for more than two months and has remained silent on the talks.
According to U.S. and Iranian officials, Mojtaba Khamenei halted official activities after being seriously injured in U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in February. The attack reportedly killed his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and family members. Since then, Iranian authorities have released only a written message believed to have been drafted by Mojtaba and images suspected of being generated and manipulated by artificial intelligence (AI). No voice message or recent video has been made public.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) assessed that the absence of the supreme leader is increasingly burdening Iran in negotiations to end the war. While Iran's leadership maintained unity during wartime, it is revealing internal policy rifts as it enters a negotiating phase. In particular, analysis indicates that differences between hard-liners and moderates are widening over how far to concede in talks with the United States.
In Iran's political circles, criticism has reportedly emerged that the negotiating line centered on Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is conceding too much to the United States. Among hard-core supporters, discontent is spreading that "we do not even know where the supreme leader is," with some questioning the very legitimacy of the talks. Arash Azizi, an Iran expert, told the WSJ, "Within the hard-line camp, the leader's absence is a particularly significant source of anxiety," adding, "There is a growing perception that the negotiating team is being dragged too far by the United States."
Some supporters are using social media (SNS) to urge Mojtaba to at least release a voice message. Observers say Mojtaba's silence contrasts with past Iranian leaders, who directly stated their positions on major national issues and mediated internal conflicts. Iran's first supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, likened the end of the Iran-Iraq War to a "poisoned chalice," yet personally decided to end the war. Ali Khamenei also publicly approved the talks during the 2015 nuclear negotiations, setting the political direction.
The Iranian government explains the supreme leader's silence as a measure to ensure personal safety. Given that Israel has targeted and eliminated senior Iranian figures during the war, Mojtaba is also a prime target, it says. Nevertheless, some voices are questioning whether he is even alive.
Amid this, President Masoud Pezeshkian moved to quell the controversy by disclosing that he held a roughly 2-hour-and-30-minute meeting with Mojtaba recently. The move is seen as an attempt to underscore that the supreme leader remains in control.
Saeid Golkar, an Iranian security expert, said, "The Iranian regime is trying to persuade people that he is not dead but in hiding for his safety," adding, "In a negotiating phase, the leader's very presence is a core variable for regime stability."
Only recently has the Iranian side disclosed his injured area, claiming there are no health problems. But with no details on the substance, timing, or location of the meeting, questions remain. There is also concern that if the absence of the supreme leader drags on at a critical juncture in the diplomatic talks, the momentum for negotiations themselves could falter.
The talks have not found a clear breakthrough either. On the 10th (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump sharply criticized Iran's counterproposal on his social network Truth Social. Trump said, "I just read the response from Iran's so-called 'representatives,'" adding, "Totally unacceptable."
Iran is said to have demanded wide-ranging concessions from the United States, including sanctions relief and security guarantees. But with a wide gap still between the two sides and the prolonged absence of the supreme leader layered on top, observers say uncertainty over the talks is growing even further.