The United States is moving to exert all-around pressure with the goal of collapsing Iran's regime, but Iran can withstand the U.S. maritime blockade for at least the next three to four months and appears to be secretly continuing oil exports, the regime's "cash cow." Contrary to the Donald Trump administration's claim that "Iran is collapsing," the outlook is strengthening that Iran's system will hold for the time being.
On the 7th, the Washington Post (WP) reported that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) delivered a report to the Donald Trump administration this week stating that "Iran can withstand the U.S. maritime blockade for at least three to four months." Citing four anonymous officials, the WP said, "Iran is expected to face more severe economic hardship only after that."
In particular, compared with before the war, Iran's numbers of mobile launchers and missiles are understood to be about 75% and 70% of previous levels, respectively. A senior U.S. official said there is evidence that the Iranian regime has restored and restarted most of its underground storage facilities, repaired damaged missiles, and even completed assembly of some new missiles that were nearly finished when the war broke out.
President Trump said in the Oval Office the previous day that "their missiles have been virtually destroyed for the most part," adding, "maybe about 18% to 19% remain, which isn't much compared with the past." He also said Iran's economy "is collapsing," claiming the Iranian government cannot even pay soldiers' salaries. But the U.S. intelligence community is offering an outlook that contrasts with Trump's remarks.
Moreover, Iran's drone capabilities, which it is using more aggressively than missiles in the wartime phase, are still assessed to be considerable. Danny Citrinowicz, who covered Iran at Israeli military intelligence, said Iran can produce drones even in small warehouses or easily concealed facilities, adding, "If there is even a single drone capable of attacking ships, no one will insure tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz."
Earlier, CNN, citing U.S. intelligence, also reported that roughly half of Iran's missile launchers and thousands of one-way attack drones survived after U.S. airstrikes.
The U.S. maritime blockade against Iran, in effect since last month, also does not appear to be dealing a fatal blow to Iran's economy. An analysis of satellite images and ship data by the WP showed that since the U.S. began sealing off waters in the Gulf of Oman last month, at least 13 tankers have offloaded Iranian crude via covert ship-to-ship transfers in waters near Indonesia's Riau Islands.
According to U.S. tanker-tracking firm TankerTrackers, about 13 vessels offloaded a total of 22 million barrels of Iranian crude, which is estimated to be worth more than $2 billion (about 3 trillion won) at current prices.
The WP said that "the blockade appears to have choked off new shipments of Iranian crude from leaving the Persian Gulf," but added that "as oil already at sea heads to other markets such as China, these ongoing transfers have allowed Tehran to keep cash flowing, at least temporarily."
On top of that, new overland oil-smuggling routes are also seen propping up Iran's economy. A U.S. official said, "Iran may have begun transporting oil by rail via Central Asia." This situation is expected to work against President Trump, who wants an early end to the war amid upward pressure on oil prices.