The United States is mounting an all-out pressure campaign aimed at toppling Iran's regime, but Iran can withstand America's maritime blockade for at least the next three to four months and is secretly continuing oil exports, the regime's "cash cow." Contrary to the Donald Trump administration's claim that "Iran is collapsing," the outlook is strengthening that Iran's system will hold for the time being.
On the 7th (local time), the Washington Post (WP) reported that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) delivered a report to the Donald Trump administration this week saying "Iran can endure the U.S. maritime blockade for at least three to four months." Citing four anonymous officials, WP said, "Iran is expected to face more serious economic difficulties only after that."
In particular, compared with before the war, Iran's mobile launchers and missile stockpiles are assessed to be at about 75% and 70% of their previous levels, respectively. A senior U.S. official said there is evidence that the Iranian regime has restored and restarted most of its underground storage facilities, repaired damaged missiles, and even completed assembly of some new missiles that were near completion when the war broke out.
President Trump said in the Oval Office the previous day that "most of their missiles have effectively been destroyed," adding, "maybe about 18% to 19% remain, which is not that many compared with the past." He also said Iran's economy is "collapsing," claiming the Iranian government cannot even pay soldiers' salaries. But the U.S. intelligence community is offering an outlook that runs counter to the president's remarks.
Moreover, Iran's drone force, which it is using more aggressively than missiles in the wartime phase, is still considered to be at a substantial level. Danny Citrinowicz, who handled Iran at Israeli military intelligence, said Iran can produce drones even in small warehouses or easily concealed facilities, adding, "If there is even one drone capable of attacking ships, no one will insure oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz."
Earlier, CNN, citing U.S. intelligence, also reported that even after U.S. airstrikes, about half of Iran's missile launchers and thousands of one-way attack drones survived.
The U.S. maritime blockade against Iran, in effect since last month, also does not appear to be dealing a fatal blow to Iran's economy. Analyzing satellite images and ship data, WP reported that since the United States began blockading the Gulf of Oman last month, at least 13 tankers have offloaded Iranian crude near Indonesia's Riau Islands through covert ship-to-ship transfers.
According to U.S. tanker-tracking firm TankerTrackers, about 13 vessels offloaded a total of 22 million barrels of Iranian crude, estimated to be worth more than $2 billion (about 3 trillion won) at current prices.
WP said, "The blockade appears to have choked off new shipments of Iranian crude from exiting the Persian Gulf," but assessed that "as oil already at sea heads to other markets such as China, this ongoing transshipment has allowed Tehran to keep its funding lifeline, at least temporarily."
On top of that, a new overland oil-smuggling route is also believed to be propping up Iran's economy. A U.S. official said, "Iran may have begun transporting oil by rail via Central Asia." This situation is expected to work against President Trump, who wants an early end to the war amid upward pressure on oil prices.