With the U.S.-China summit, which had been postponed once due to worsening Middle East tensions, now increasingly likely to be held on the occasion of U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to China on the 14th–15th, attention is focusing on the agenda. As the situation in the Middle East deteriorated earlier this month, the Iran war issue was expected to become the core agenda of the summit. But as hopes rise for a truce deal, expectations are that the summit's focus will shift back to technology and trade competition. Meeting at the negotiating table for the first time in about half a year, the two leaders are expected to focus on the overall strategic rivalry, including artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors, rare earths, and Taiwan.
On the 8th, according to the People's Daily, the Chinese Communist Party's newspaper, China's top leadership met the day before with a delegation of U.S. senators. The delegation is led by Steve Daines, a Republican senator from Montana and a close ally of President Trump, and was received by Premier Li Qiang, the No. 2 in China's power hierarchy, Zhao Leji, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China, who ranks third, and Wang Yi, minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Sen. Daines is known to have played a mediating role during the first Trump administration's U.S.-China trade war, and Chinese experts assess that he effectively serves as an informal communication channel between the U.S. and Chinese leadership. China's top leadership, meeting with Daines the day before, emphasized the importance of stabilizing bilateral relations based on dialogue and cooperation. This is seen as a move to lay the groundwork ahead of next week's U.S.-China summit.
Beijing has remained tight-lipped about President Trump's schedule and whether a summit will be held, but Trump has directly revealed his plan to visit China, and his armored presidential limousine was reportedly spotted in downtown Beijing. If Trump's visit proceeds as scheduled on the 14th–15th, it would be the first visit to China by a U.S. president in about nine years, since the first Trump administration in 2017, and the U.S.-China summit would be the first in about half a year since the meeting in Busan in Oct. last year.
◇ Iran variable easing? Focus shifts back to trade and tech competition
There is growing expectation that the summit will cover the full range of strategic competition, including AI, semiconductors, rare earths, and Taiwan. In particular, as U.S.-Iran talks to end the war have made progress recently, there is a possibility that the Middle East issue—initially cited as the biggest variable—will instead step back from being the core agenda of the summit.
In a media interview on the 6th (local time), President Trump, when asked whether he would put China's support for Iran on the summit agenda, said, "I will. But if this (Iran truce talks) ends, there will be nothing to put on it." This is interpreted to mean that if the Iran issue enters a resolution phase, the center of gravity of the U.S.-China summit could shift back to trade and technology competition.
Accordingly, the contest for technological supremacy and supply chains centered on AI and semiconductors is expected to be the key point to watch at this U.S.-China summit. At a recent White House event, Trump said, "We are ahead of China in AI," adding, "This visit will be a very important trip." The United States is likely to try to check China's pursuit in AI technology while maintaining export controls on semiconductors to China.
China, on the other hand, is expected to use its grip on the rare earths supply chain as a bargaining chip to extract maximum concessions from the United States. China's controls on rare earth exports have previously caused widespread disruptions to advanced manufacturing in the United States, including the automotive and aerospace sectors.
In fact, the United States and China continue to spar over advanced technology and supply chains. In March, the United States launched an investigation into China's overproduction and allegations of forced labor. More recently, it tightened export controls on semiconductor equipment to Chinese corporations and sanctioned Chinese corporations suspected of involvement in transactions of Iranian crude oil.
China has countered by tightening its supply chain control rules. The core is to strengthen control as a national strategic asset by setting penalties for violations across all stages—mining, smelting, and distribution—of rare earths. In addition, Premier Li Qiang signed regulations expanding authorities to investigate foreign corporations, governments, and individuals seeking to transfer supply chains overseas.
◇ China: "Taiwan is a red line"… Taiwan likely to be a core agenda item
The Taiwan issue is also cited as a core agenda item. In the meeting the previous day between China's top leadership and Sen. Daines, Premier Li Qiang said, "The Taiwan issue concerns China's core interests and is the first red line that cannot be crossed in U.S.-China relations," and Chairman Zhao Leji also said, "The Taiwan issue is the most important and sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations. We hope the United States will adhere to the 'one China' principle and handle the Taiwan issue prudently."
According to Reuters, China has informally asked the U.S. government to change its wording on Taiwan independence from "does not support" to "oppose." However, it is uncertain whether the United States will accept this request. Tsai Ming-yen, Director General of Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB), said the previous day, "Through both public and private channels, the United States has continued to reaffirm that there is no change in its Taiwan policy."
There is also considerable skepticism that this summit will be a fundamental turning point in bilateral relations. Unlike at the Busan meeting last year, when the agenda was coordinated after lengthy working-level talks, this summit appears to have come together quickly amid the Iran war variable. Reuters said, "Judging from the results of President Trump's last visit to China, the chances of a major breakthrough this time are not high," adding, "Given recent circumstances, the potential risks could far outweigh what both sides can achieve through negotiations."