The share of Americans who do not support President Donald Trump's job performance has hit a record high during his tenure, a poll showed. It is being read as a sign that Republicans' political footing is weakening six months ahead of the midterm elections.
The Washington Post (WP), together with ABC News and polling firm Ipsos, conducted a survey of 2,560 U.S. adults from the 24th to 28th of last month and released it on the 3rd (local time). Trump's job approval stood at 37%, little changed from February's 39%. The margin of error is ±2.0 percentage points.
By contrast, disapproval of his job performance reached 62%, the highest level across his first and second terms combined.
His political base is holding, but his broader appeal appears to be shrinking. Approval among Republican supporters remained solid at 85%, but approval among Republican-leaning independents fell to 56%, and overall independents' approval was just 25%. Analysts say the defection of moderates is becoming more evident.
In this survey, Americans gave negative marks to Trump's leadership across the Iran war and major issues overall. On his response to Iran, 66% rated him negatively, while 33% rated him positively.
In particular, support in the economy—his core foundation for victory in the 2024 presidential election—has visibly weakened. Approval of his economic policy performance was 34%, down 7 percentage points from February, and amid rising oil prices and other factors, approval of his handling of inflation fell 5 points to 27%.
Ratings on the cost of living were the lowest. Some 76% rated it negatively, and only 23% rated it positively.
Shifts are also detected in the party competition landscape. In response to the question, "If the House election were held today, which party would you support?", 49% of registered voters chose Democrats, 5 percentage points ahead of Republicans (44%). That is a wider gap than in February (Democrats 47%, Republicans 45%).
Democrats also led in voting enthusiasm. Among those saying this midterm vote is more important than in the past, 73% were Democratic supporters and 52% were Republican supporters. The share saying they will definitely vote was also higher among Democratic supporters at 79%, and within the Republican Party, a gap was evident between core "MAGA" voters (77%) and non-MAGA voters (59%).
Republicans' traditional edge in policy trust also appears to have weakened. On the economy, trust was effectively tied at Republicans 34% and Democrats 33%. That is a big change from the 2022 midterms, when Republicans led by double digits. Trust on handling inflation was likewise similar between the two parties.
Trump received relatively higher marks only on immigration. Approval of his handling of the border was 45%, higher than in other policy areas, but he received generally low ratings on key kitchen-table issues such as the economy, prices, and the cost of living.
Within the Republican Party, cohesion around Trump remains strong. Some 65% of Republican supporters said the party should follow Trump's direction, a figure that has dipped somewhat from the past but remains high. However, some noted that such cohesion could act as a constraint on expanding to the middle.
WP analyzed that the findings are threatening Republicans' narrow House majority and are acting as a variable that could even shake their Senate majority. It added that multiple factors, including institutional variables such as redistricting, could affect the political landscape going forward.