U.S. intelligence agencies are predicting how Iran would respond if U.S. President Donald Trump were to unilaterally declare victory in the war with Iran, Reuters reported on the 28th. As the Trump administration, concerned about falling approval ratings and a potential drubbing in the midterms, searches for an exit strategy, the move is seen as a preemptive step to gauge the political and diplomatic fallout that could follow.
Reuters, citing an administration official, reported that at the request of senior government officials, U.S. intelligence agencies are analyzing the ripple effects of the president's planned victory declaration in the Iran war. As the war, now in its second month, has become a massive burden on the White House, the aim is to assess the blowback that could arise if military operations are scaled back.
In an internal assessment conducted shortly after the surprise airstrikes in early March, the intelligence agencies analyzed that "if the president declares victory and reduces military force, Iran is highly likely to regard it as a victory it has secured." By contrast, they projected that if large-scale military power is maintained, Iran would see it not as an end to the war but merely as a pressure tactic for negotiations.
The U.S. government is still maintaining a cautious stance on the surface. White House Spokesperson Anna Kelly told Reuters that "the United States is still negotiating with Iran," adding, "We will not rush into a bad deal." She continued, "The president will engage only in an agreement that puts U.S. national security first, and has been clear that it is absolutely unacceptable for Iran to possess a nuclear weapon."
War fatigue is taking a heavy toll on President Trump. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, only 26% of respondents said the military operation was worthwhile. Gasoline prices in the United States have also soared due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Talks are also deadlocked. On the 25th, President Trump abruptly canceled a meeting with the Pakistani envoy and told reporters, "It will take too much time," adding, "If Iran wants to talk, all they have to do is call." As a result, some assess that both sides are merely exposing sharp disagreements.