Air routes connecting Japan and China have been cut in half in a year. After Sanae Takaichi, Japan's prime minister, suggested possible military involvement in the event of a Taiwan contingency in Nov. last year, diplomatic friction flared between the two countries, causing Chinese group tourists—once core visitors—to vanish.
According to "summer schedule for international regular flights" data released by Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism on the 29th, passenger flights from Japan to China this summer (Mar. 29–Oct. 24) are expected to total only 597 per week.
The aviation industry requires complex advance coordination, including global airport slot (takeoff and landing time) allocation. For this reason, it typically finalizes summer season flight plans early, bundling late Mar. through late Oct. Last summer's regular flights posted a 47% increase, marking a boom. The 597 weekly flights represent a plunge of as much as 53% from the same period a year earlier.
By contrast, air routes to neighboring countries excluding China are enjoying an unprecedented boom. Routes to Korea are up 22% to 1,595 per week. Routes to Taiwan also increased 12% to 732.5 per week.
The Chinese government effectively implemented retaliatory measures this year that block travel to Japan. As a result, Chubu Airport and Kansai Airport, which were heavily dependent on Chinese tourists, saw their summer flight operations shrink 22% and 14%, respectively, from a year earlier. Over the same period, Haneda Airport and Fukuoka Airport, which draw passengers to and from Korea and Taiwan, increased their total number of flights.
In the aviation industry, with political conflict between the two countries showing signs of becoming protracted, a recovery in demand for flights from Japan to China is seen as unlikely for the time being. Instead, major airlines are trimming underperforming Japan routes and redirecting capacity to other regions.
To make matters worse, a deteriorating external economic environment is hamstringing Japan's aviation industry. Due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East and soaring international oil prices, not only Japan but global airlines are facing a rapid increase in expense burdens. At Narita Airport, considered a gateway to Tokyo, Middle East–bound flights that used to take off and land more than 240 times a month plunged to 69 in Mar.
Airlines from countries other than China are also weighing cuts to Japan routes to save on surging fuel costs, suggesting fundamental disruptions to the Japanese government's plan to boost domestic demand by leveraging inbound tourism.