As the Iran war passed its 50th day since it began, the second round of direct talks between the United States and Iran was hobbled by a power struggle over the format of the meeting rather than the terms of a deal.
U.S. President Donald Trump on the 25th said he canceled at the last minute the departures to Pakistan of special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. It came right after Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was leading the Iranian delegation, left Islamabad, Pakistan, for Oman.
President Trump again pulled out a transaction style that prioritizes staging a surrender over negotiation results. In a Fox News interview that day, he said, "I'm not going to fly 18 hours to have a conversation about nothing." On his Truth Social, he wrote, "We hold all the cards. If they want, they can call us anytime." As for Iran's leadership, he played it down, saying, "The internal strife and confusion are so severe that they themselves don't know who's in charge."
Just before leaving Florida for Washington the same day, Trump also told reporters, "Iran gave a sheet of paper, but the content wasn't sufficient," adding, "Once we canceled, we got a much better document in 10 minutes."
Political outlet Axios and others said the Trump administration is using the collapse of the second round of talks with Iran as a card to flaunt its bargaining power. Instead of an image of a U.S. envoy flying 18 hours and pleading, the frame shifted to an image of Iran pushing a new proposal in 10 minutes, according to the analysis. Downgrading the negotiation channel from a face-to-face meeting to a phone call is also a signal that the United States won't move first.
White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Fox News, "President Trump is satisfied with the naval blockade and sees Iran as being in a very weak position."
Domestic political calculus also appears to underlie Trump's decision to cancel sending a negotiating team. Since the Iran war began, approval ratings for the Trump administration's governance have been scraping bottom. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on the 21st, Trump's approval fell to 36%. An AP/NORC poll put it at 33%, and an NBC News poll hit 37%, the lowest since his inauguration. Approval of his handling of the economy was 29%, and his handling of inflation was 28%. In an Economist/YouGov poll, support for the Iran war was 30%, while opposition surged to the high 60% range.
The average U.S. gasoline price topped $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022 during the pandemic. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, also broke above $106 per barrel on the 25th after the talks fell apart.
Given this, the U.S. claim that it "holds all the cards" is seen as negotiation exaggeration. Trump in particular has attacked Obama's Iran nuclear deal as "the worst deal." In the current situation, if the United States agrees to conditions presented by Iran, it faces the heavy burden of retracing the Obama administration's 2015 nuclear deal. If the U.S. delegation is seen going to Iran and appearing to concede, the narrative that has touted its pressure strategy against Iran as a success could be shaken.
Nate Swanson, a researcher at the conservative think tank Atlantic Council, said, "The Trump administration has demanded a 'near-surrender agreement' that goes beyond Iran's nuclear issue to encompass missiles and regional activities," adding, "It is politically difficult to choose a compromise that appears to revive an Obama-style nuclear deal."
Iran also needs an exit quickly. The damage from the war is narrowing the leadership's room to negotiate. Bloomberg reported on the 25th that total war deaths have topped 5,000, with most occurring in Iran. U.S.-based human rights group HRANA counted 3,636 confirmed deaths in Iran as of early April. Since the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the economy has been piling up shocks close to total paralysis. Reuters said Iran's economic growth could be -10% this year, and at least millions are experiencing problems such as job losses, income declines, and establishment closures.
But it cannot be dragged to the negotiating table by accepting conditions close to surrender as designed by the United States. With hard-liners such as the Revolutionary Guard still pushing back, accepting a humiliating proposal would sharply raise the likelihood of losing power amid blame for it. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, "Within Iran, efforts to avoid responsibility and hard-liner checks have intensified over the level of concessions today."
On Iran's side, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi handled this round of talks. On the 25th, Araghchi wrote on his X (formerly Twitter) account, "It is not yet clear whether the United States is serious about diplomacy." He headed straight to Oman after meeting with Pakistan's Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir that day. It is a signal that Iran will not accept the format set by the United States. Esmail Baghaei, Spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said slightly earlier on X, "There is no schedule set for talks between Iran and the United States. Going forward, Iran's position will be conveyed through Pakistan."
With the talks running on parallel tracks, maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz appears set to face difficulties for the time being. LSEG vessel-tracking data show that from the 20th to the 23rd only nine oil tankers passed through Hormuz. Before the war, more than 100 ships a day traversed the waterway.
On the 23rd, Iran's Revolutionary Guard also seized two foreign cargo ships passing through the strait. The same day, the U.S. military intercepted an oil tanker in the Indian Ocean carrying Iranian crude subject to sanctions. On Truth Social, President Trump wrote, "No vessel can go in or out of the strait without U.S. Navy approval. It will be sealed up tight until Iran reaches a deal."
As a result, Brent, the global oil benchmark, hit $106.80 per barrel on the 24th, well above the psychological resistance line of $100. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also jumped to $95.85. Masood Khan, former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, told the Washington Post, "Unless the twin blockades by both sides around Hormuz are lifted, there can be no breakthrough for a second round of talks."
Still, some said the collapse of these talks does not mean a break in diplomacy or a return to all-out war. Right after canceling the meeting, President Trump left room when asked about resuming the use of force, saying, "I haven't thought about it." Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif continued mediating by speaking for 50 minutes with Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian right after the talks fell apart.