The United States is pressuring Iraq, which has sought neutrality between the United States and Iran, to cut ties with Iran. With pro-Iranian militias in Iraq supporting Iran in the current war, the move appears intended to force Iraq to clearly choose a side between the two.
On the 21st, the New York Times (NYT) reported, "The Iraqi government is coming under increasing U.S. pressure to choose one side as its two partner countries are at war," adding, "The United States is demanding that Iraq sever relations with Iran and bring under control the Iran-linked Iraqi militias identified as being behind recent attacks targeting U.S. interests."
U.S. State Department Deputy Spokesperson Tommy Pigott said in a statement, "The United States will not tolerate attacks on its interests, and we expect the Iraqi government to immediately take all steps to dismantle Iran-linked militias in Iraq."
The pressure appears to stem from the expansion of activities by pro-Iranian militias. Since the outbreak of the war with Iran, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, U.S. military bases, and airports near U.S. air defense systems installed close to U.S. bases in northern Iraq have come under repeated attack, and pro-Iranian militias have claimed responsibility for some of these attacks.
On the 8th, pro-Iranian Iraqi militias carried out multiple drone strikes near Baghdad International Airport targeting a diplomatic delegation. The following day, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau summoned Iraq's ambassador to the United States, Nizar Khairallah, and strongly condemned the militia attacks.
U.S. pressure on Iraq is becoming increasingly visible. Two anonymous Iraqi officials said the United States had suspended cooperation and funding with Iraq's security agencies. The suspension reportedly includes a halt to joint counterterrorism operations against groups such as the Islamic State, as well as a stop to training and other support for the Iraqi military.
Moreover, on the 20th, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad warned on social media (SNS) that pro-Iranian militias in Iraq were planning attacks targeting U.S. citizens and other U.S.-related targets, and again advised U.S. citizens to refrain from traveling to Iraq. The embassy also suspended all consular services.
Iraq's foreign policy has tilted closer to either the United States or Iran depending on the ruling camp's orientation. For the next prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, a former prime minister nominated in January by the Shia Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shia blocs in the legislature, is the leading candidate. When he took power in 2006, he was pro-U.S., but he shifted to a pro-Iran stance after U.S. forces withdrew from Iraq in 2011.
According to the NYT, Iraq, like Iran, is one of the few Arab countries in the Middle East where Shia Muslims are the majority, and Shia parties close to Iran have recently emerged as the most powerful force within Iraq's government. In addition, among the militias formed to attack U.S. forces after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, some hard-line groups have slipped beyond state control and maintain close ties with Iran.
Voices of concern are also emerging within Iraq over U.S. pressure. An anonymous official at the Ministry of National Defense said that if U.S. support were cut off, it would affect not only the Iraqi Air Force's logistics support but also its training programs.
However, the prevailing view is that it will not be easy for the Iraqi government to control the pro-Iranian militias as the United States demands. Iraq maintains a power-sharing structure in which, by convention, the prime minister is Shia, the parliamentary speaker is Sunni, and the president is Kurdish, leaving Shia political forces closely entangled with Iran.
Ramzy Mardini, founder of the Middle East-based geopolitical risk advisory firm Geopol Labs, said, "The boundaries of the Iraqi state itself are blurred," adding, "In this case, U.S. coercion is based on a flawed assumption that the Iraqi government can act as a unified and autonomous actor."