Qatar, a Gulf nation that has played the role of a "mediator" in Middle East conflicts, is now in a position where it must reassess its security strategy due to the war with Iran. The war has also dealt a major blow to its image as a safe country for corporate activity.
On the 19th (local time), the New York Times (NYT) reported, "Qatar, a gas-rich Gulf nation, has suffered severe damage to its economy from the war and fallen into a state of 'strategic shock,'" adding, "Gulf nations wedged between key allies and neighboring countries are in a situation where they must reassess their security strategies."
According to the NYT, Qatar in recent years has invested considerable political capital, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in restoring relations with Iran. It judged that deterring Iran's threat and easing hostile relations was the most realistic way to ensure national security.
However, Qatar, which hosts a U.S. military base, came under more than 700 Iranian missile and drone attacks after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. As a result, Qatar had to halt natural gas production, which accounts for about 20% of global supply, and Qatar Airways flights that crisscrossed the world via Doha were suspended, weakening the tourism industry.
In particular, Ras Laffan, the LNG production hub directly damaged by Iran's attacks, is expected to take up to five years to recover, and annual losses are projected at about $20 billion (about 30 trillion won), equivalent to about 37% of Qatar's government revenue. Qatar Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi said, "This incident set the entire region back by 10–20 years."
An even bigger problem is that Qatar's image has collapsed after it had poured efforts into making its capital, Doha, a business hub. Qatar was targeted for attack by Iran in June last year because it hosts a U.S. military base and then again came under airstrikes, damaging its standing as a business hub.
Its reliance on ties with the United States for national security also did not protect Qatar in this war. In recent years, the Qatari government sought to build a close relationship with President Trump and even donated a Boeing 747 aircraft. During President Trump's visit to Qatar in May last year, an economic cooperation agreement worth at least $1.2 trillion (about 1,771 trillion won) was also signed.
Rashid Al-Mohannadi, deputy director of the Qatar International Policy Research Center, said the war put Qatar and neighboring countries in a state of "strategic shock," noting, "(They) thought that actions as momentous as a war with Iran would at least be taken in consultation with the Gulf nations."
Still, the prevailing view is that it will be difficult in practical terms for Qatar to distance itself from the United States. Most Gulf nations do not have realistic alternatives to replace U.S. security protection. Dina Esfandiary of Bloomberg Economics said, "They are dependent and there is not much they can do."
There is also a positive outlook for Qatar's standing. Farouk Soussa, a Middle East economist at Goldman Sachs, said, "Fortunately, Qatar has substantial funds," adding, "The idea that trust is completely gone and no one will return may be exaggerated. It will depend on how the postwar regional order is shaped."