With the United States' reverse blockade of the Strait of Hormuz choking off Iran's crude exports, a production cut within two weeks is seen as inevitable. The measure by U.S. President Donald Trump is viewed as having effectively drawn Iran to the negotiating table.
On the 15th (local time), Fox News cited a study released by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), reporting that the reverse blockade could inflict daily losses of $435 million (about 641.0 billion won) on Iran. In particular, damages from blocked crude exports are estimated at $276 million, which could significantly affect the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which takes more than half of the revenue.
Researcher Miad Maleki, who led the study, especially noted that the reverse blockade would inevitably halt operations at Iran's oil fields within two weeks. Iran has stockpiling facilities that can store roughly two weeks' worth of crude output, but if exports are effectively blocked, it must cut production, which could drive fiscal losses and a rise in Iran's unemployment rate.
According to satellite analytics firm Kayrros, Iran's storage tanks holding unsold crude are currently just over 51% full. Based on the current export volume of about 1.8 million barrels per day, there is capacity to add roughly 16 days of production to the tanks, after which output cuts would have to be implemented.
Earlier, U.S. Central Command began a maritime blockade against Iran focused on the Strait of Hormuz starting at 10 a.m. Eastern time on the 13th. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the U.S. military has deployed more than 15 warships to the area, focusing on blocking vessels bound for Iran.
Sensing the severity, Iran presented the United States with a limited strait-opening plan, and the talks appear to be gaining momentum. Reuters reported that Iran indicated it would not attack ships transiting Omani territorial waters within the Strait of Hormuz if an agreement is reached to prevent a recurrence of clashes.
It remains unclear whether the United States will accept Iran's proposal, but White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, "We view the prospects for an agreement positively," adding, "For Iran, it is clearly in its best interest to accept President Trump's demands."