Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the United States' North Korea diplomacy priority could shift from North Korea's denuclearization to cooperation among North Korea, Russia and Iran, as North Korea and Russia have drawn closer amid the war in Ukraine.
On the 14th (local time), at a discussion hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, titled "Unprecedented threats: the North Korea-Russia alliance," Cha analyzed the meaning of the North Korea-Russia rapprochement and laid out policy directions.
First, Cha estimated that North Korea, by supplying Russia with artillery, ammunition, missiles and troops, may have pocketed up to $12.25 billion (about 18 trillion won) in revenue. Real-world experience with missiles and ground forces on a battlefield mixing drone warfare and ground combat was also counted as a gain from participation.
Cha said, "As Russia has effectively reinvested in North Korea's munitions factories, North Korea has stockpiled far more and better-quality arms than before the Ukraine war," adding, "With its material needs met, North Korea is less likely to negotiate with the Donald Trump U.S. administration or the Lee Jae-myung Korean administration."
He predicted, "If the United States resumes contact with North Korea, the focus is likely to move from complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization to the North Korea-Russia relationship and the prospect of North Korea-Iran cooperation."
On Iran, he said, "Contrary to the U.S. government's statements, Iran's nuclear program has not been completely destroyed, and Iran will try to rebuild it," adding, "We cannot rule out the possibility that Iran will ask North Korea for help in the process."
He also compared the missile systems of North Korea and Iran, pointing out the difficulties of striking North Korea. Cha said, "You can't just go in and bomb North Korea's facilities. We don't know the locations of all the facilities," noting, "Because North Korea is considered capable of striking most of the United States with intercontinental ballistic missiles, military options are not very effective."
As for the direction of North Korea policy, he recommended attempting diplomacy whenever there is an opening. Cha added, "By leveraging the checks on great powers around North Korea and through information operations, we can weaken the North Korea-Russia relationship."
Aiming at the current international political situation, Cha also said, "We should start trilateral cooperation talks among the three countries on linking South Korea-U.S.-Japan missile defense assets, trilateral joint exercises, and joint industrial production of interceptors," stressing, "Now is the time, with Japan led by a strong prime minister, Korea facing no major elections beyond upcoming local races, and the United States led by a president not bound by convention."