U.S. President Donald Trump said he would begin procedures to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after cease-fire talks between the United States and Iran collapsed. Because the move will inevitably push up international oil prices, global attention is focusing on the background of the blockade declaration.
Trump said on the 12th (local time) on the social media platform Truth Social, "The United States Navy, the strongest in the world, will immediately begin procedures to blockade all ships entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz." Accordingly, United States Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East, said it would begin blockade measures on all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports starting at 10 a.m. Eastern time on the 13th (11 p.m. Korea time on the 13th).
The Strait of Hormuz is a key maritime route through which more than 20% of the world's crude oil and natural gas shipments pass. After Iran warned at the end of February that it could use mines and drones against ships transiting the strait in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. Some tankers passed through under Iranian control on a limited basis, but energy prices, including international oil prices, soared to the ceiling.
In this situation, with midterm elections coming in November and inflation control urgent, the United States demanded the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz during talks with Iran. But as Iran stuck to a position that opening would be possible only after a final agreement, the United States abruptly declared it would exercise direct control over the strait.
The main reason the United States moved to control the Strait of Hormuz is to cut off "Iran's cash flow." The United States had restricted sales of Iranian crude citing Iran's breach of the nuclear deal, but partially eased sanctions during the war out of concern over a spike in international oil prices. Last month, it even allowed Iranian crude waiting offshore to be sold for a month.
Iran has imposed transit fees of up to $2 million on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and has earned massive revenue by selling its crude with a premium. The customer base, once largely limited to China, expanded to some Western countries. CNN reported that this revenue has been used as a major funding source for the Iranian government and military operations.
The U.S. move also carries a strategic intent to block the pattern of Iran using the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip. Right after talks fell apart on the 11th, Trump shared on social media an article arguing that the maritime blockade strategy used when pressuring Venezuela to oust Nicolás Maduro earlier this year should be employed again.
The BBC said, "The geographical characteristics of this strait allowed Iran to use it as a strategic lever during the war, and by selectively blocking ships passing through the narrow channel, it triggered a surge in oil prices." Citing experts, it added that the move is a pressure tactic to bring Iran to the negotiating table under conditions set by the United States.
Some analysts say the move also serves to check China. China has imported Iranian crude at relatively low prices, and Chinese-flagged very large crude carriers have profited by using the Strait of Hormuz. James Kraska, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said the U.S. blockade of the strait "could put countries highly dependent on Iranian oil, like China, in a bind."
The United States has already begun preparations to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said that day, "The U.S. Navy will start clearing mines that Iran placed in the strait." U.S. Central Command also said in a statement the previous day that the Navy destroyers Frank E. Petersen and Michael Murphy transited the Strait of Hormuz and conducted operations in the Arabian Sea. It added, "This operation is part of a mission to remove naval mines believed to have been laid by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and to secure the safety of the strait."
Experts expect U.S. naval assets deployed near the Strait of Hormuz to be put into full-scale use to restrict maritime traffic. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea could serve as a key hub for ship searches and interdiction operations, analysts said. Early in the war, the United States deployed eight guided-missile destroyers to the Middle East, and those ships could also be used to block or control the movement of tankers trying to exit the strait, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported.