As an unprecedented situation in which the funeral of Iran's supreme leader has been delayed for more than 40 days unfolds and even talks with the United States have fallen apart, analysts say the Iranian regime has plunged into extreme turmoil.
Iranian strategist Dr. Ramesh Sepehrad said in an interview with Fox News on the 12th (local time), "It has been 44 days since Khamenei was killed, yet the regime does not even dare to bury him publicly," noting, "This is an indicator reflecting the extreme fear permeating from the top to the bottom of the regime."
The three-day state funeral originally scheduled for early March has been postponed indefinitely. Under Islamic law, the principle is to bury the body within 24 hours, but even now, more than 40 days later, neither the timing nor the location of the burial has been disclosed. Observers say this suggests the regime may find it hard to control potential popular uprisings or internal power strife that could occur during the funeral process.
In Iran, a 40th-day memorial for former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei began on the 9th of this month. Khamenei died on Feb. 28 in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting regime facilities in central Tehran. His son Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly suffered severe injuries to his face and leg in the attack and is currently recovering.
Reuters, citing multiple sources, reported, "Mojtaba suffered a serious facial injury but is mentally lucid," adding, "He is directing state affairs and negotiations with the United States from behind the scenes through video conferences." However, he has not appeared in public, leading to assessments that he is effectively continuing a "shadow rule."
Dr. Sepehrad assessed the current Mojtaba system as close to a "mafia-style power structure." Lacking the religious legitimacy or charisma of his father, he is said to be maintaining power by relying on shared interests with key figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the judiciary, and the police.
He said, "The Iranian system is not a government that speaks with one voice but a structure that operates by function," explaining, "There are separate channels that negotiate, threaten, and punish—a division-of-labor power system." He added, "What binds this system is not trust but regime survival," calling it "a fragile alliance."
Meanwhile, the Islamabad peace talks between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan on the 11th, ultimately collapsed without a breakthrough. The two sides negotiated overnight for 21 hours but failed to find common ground. Iran's state-run Nour News said, "There are no plans for the next talks."
Experts say the Iranian regime is pursuing a "dual strategy," showing "tactical flexibility" at the negotiating table while internally strengthening "iron-fisted rule" to cement a hereditary transfer of power. The fact that the military and security apparatus, not diplomats, are leading the talks is also seen as a facet showing the current instability of Iran's system.