Despite more than a month of war with the United States, Iran is assessed to have retained much of its capability needed to build nuclear weapons. Some analysts say Iran could therefore demand "a higher price" in negotiations with the United States.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 12th (local time) that, in addition to a new economic lever of controlling the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has also gained added bargaining power in nuclear-related talks, citing analyses by government officials and experts.
The United States and Israel focused in this war on destroying facilities related to nuclear weapons research. However, experts assess that Iran still possesses a substantial number of centrifuges and is likely maintaining underground enrichment facilities. In particular, it is estimated to have kept about 450 kg of highly enriched uranium near weapons grade.
Eric Brewer, who handled Iran policy in the first Trump administration, told the WSJ, "Iran will not easily give up those materials," adding, "It will put forward higher terms than during the talks in February."
White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Iran had indicated a willingness to transfer enriched uranium and that securing it is the United States' top priority. She also emphasized that completely halting uranium enrichment inside Iran is one of President Trump's key "red lines."
Iran is known to be dispersing its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in underground tunnels in Isfahan. It also has a hardened underground facility near Natanz at "Pickaxe Mountain" that is difficult for the United States to destroy. The WSJ reported that U.S. President Donald Trump reviewed a military operation to secure the facilities but did not carry it out over concerns the war could drag on.
The United States and Iran entered negotiations over enrichment in February but failed to reach a deal. At the time, Iran proposed lowering 60% enriched uranium to the 20% level. That is still a level convertible to weapons. However, Iran does not appear to possess the capability to weaponize a nuclear warhead.