A newly registered account on the U.S. prediction market platform Polymarket placed a large bet that the United States and Iran would reach a cease-fire just hours before U.S. President Donald Trump announced the truce, raking in big profits. In the United States, allegations have been raised that government insiders are cashing in using nonpublic information.
The Associated Press reported on the 8th (local time) that "at least 50 newly created (Polymarket) accounts appeared to have bet on a cease-fire." Polymarket is a platform where people place bets on a wide range of topics and earn returns based on the outcome. In Korea, it is classified as an illegal gambling site and cannot be used.
Trump announced at 6:32 p.m. Eastern on the 7th that he would halt strikes on Iran for two weeks. It was 1 hour and 28 minutes before the 8 p.m. deadline he had set as an ultimatum.
The AP used the cryptocurrency analytics platform "Dune" to identify suspicious accounts. One account signed up around 10 a.m. on the 7th and wagered about $72,000 (about 106.64 million won) on the possibility of a truce. The price at the time was 8.8 cents, meaning participants saw the probability of a cease-fire as 8.8%. After Trump's truce declaration, this account earned about $200,000 (about 296 million won) in revenue.
Another account that registered 12 minutes before Trump announced the truce wagered about $31,908 (about 47.25 million won) and walked away with $48,500 (about 71.8 million won).
A similar pattern emerged on Feb. 28 during U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and on Jan. 3 during the U.S. invasion of Venezuela. The AP reported, "Questions have repeatedly been raised over whether some users are using inside information to profit."
Polymarket accounts can be created anonymously, and because virtual assets are used as a means of transaction, the structure makes it difficult to identify users. U.S. House members introduced a bill last month to restrict betting products on topics such as government activities.