As the Iran war entered a two-week cease-fire, international oil prices have shown some signs of easing. But the six weeks of armed clashes signaled long-term, structural aftershocks for the global economy. Emerging economies and major European countries, which are overwhelmingly dependent on energy imports, could not avoid the economic blow of soaring inflation and rising liability.
By contrast, the United States, which secured its status as the world's largest energy producer after the shale revolution, was seen as absorbing the external shock relatively well on the back of energy self-sufficiency. As a result, analysis is emerging that this Iran war, sparked by the United States, is serving as a key factor further cementing America's relative economic advantage.
On the 8th (local time), the heads of the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) voiced concern in unison about the impact and damage this war will have on the global economy overall. Ajay Banga, the World Bank president, said at an Atlantic Council event on the 7th that "the global economic growth rate, which was expected to be 2.83% before the outbreak of the conflict, will fall by at least 0.3–0.4 percentage points." The World Bank analyzed that if the situation is not fully resolved and drags on, a drop in growth of more than 1 percentage point could occur worldwide, and global inflation could also rise by up to nearly 0.9 percentage point.
Kristalina Georgieva, the International Monetary Fund managing director, told Reuters on the 6th, expressing concern about the current gyrating macroeconomic uncertainty, that "the global economy is heading toward higher prices and lower growth." Even if the Iran war moves from a cease-fire to a formal end, there is a shared view that already-damaged supply chains and energy price volatility will firmly hold back the global economy for a considerable period.
Foreign Affairs defined this Iran war as a catalyst for a global liability crisis that goes beyond a simple, short-term energy supply shortage. Over the past five weeks, Israel and Iran have carried out successive precision strikes on key energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. It is expected to take years to fully restore destroyed large-scale refineries and gas fields to their original state. This suggests that while energy prices may temporarily decline, the higher trend compared with before the war will not subside for the time being.
Quoting experts, Foreign Affairs said, "This kind of prolonged inflationary pressure serves as the most important driving force that keeps major Central Banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, on a high-rate stance for an extended period." As a result, low-income countries and emerging economies are expected to see a markedly higher share of dollar-denominated liability. They will have to shoulder both the surging energy import expense going forward and the expanded interest repayment burden stemming from high rates and a strong dollar.
International economic experts analyzed that the current macroeconomic conditions closely mirror the pattern of the cascade of sovereign defaults that ruthlessly struck emerging economies in the 1980s. After oil prices surged due to the oil shock in the 1970s and global inflation took hold, Paul Volcker, then Federal Reserve chair, took steps to sharply raise the benchmark interest rate to tame prices. Under the shock of rapid monetary tightening, Mexico became the first among emerging economies to declare default in 1982. Large borrowing countries across Latin America, including Brazil and Argentina, wobbled in succession. In sub-Saharan Africa, many countries—Zambia, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Zaire, Malawi, Niger, and Kenya—lost their growth base under the weight of high interest rates and dollar liability burdens.
Yet even as the global economy contracted, the United States alone maintained a solid economic footing. Citigroup, a global investment bank, cut this year's overall eurozone (the 21 countries that use the euro) growth forecast by 0.4 percentage point from its previous outlook due to the impact of the Iran war. By contrast, the U.S. growth forecast fell by only 0.1 percentage point. According to Citigroup, major European countries that are not oil producers carry a structural vulnerability in which the expense burden from net crude oil and liquefied natural gas imports continually erodes 1–2% of their gross domestic product.
The United States, by contrast, has a surplus economic structure in which massive net energy exports contribute about 0.2% to its gross domestic product. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing experts, assessed that "the United States has robust capabilities to procure the essential energy needed for its domestic industries stably and without external interference," adding that it has "built an overwhelming economic shield compared with other competitors facing inflation and recession."
Experts said this energy security capability translates directly into differences in national economic strength when geopolitical anxiety is elevated, as it is now. U.S. President Donald Trump is also actively leveraging the more firmly established energy hegemony after the Iran war as a diplomatic lever. As the crisis over a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil shipments, peaked on the 31st of last month, President Trump said, "Each country should secure its own oil," revealing an America First policy stance. This is interpreted as a resolute declaration that the United States will no longer unconditionally serve as an economic safety net for allies or partner nations facing economic crises, as it did in the past.