The United States has postponed for two weeks a war with Iran that had raced to the brink. U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a conditional ceasefire to halt military strikes on Iran for two weeks at 6:32 p.m. on the 7th local time, about 90 minutes before the deadline he had set as his final ultimatum.
At the same time, President Trump set a precondition that Iran must open the Strait of Hormuz—a key chokepoint through which about one-fifth of the world's oil shipments pass in peacetime—"complete, immediate, safe." Israel's military authorities also indirectly signaled through the White House that they had agreed to a two-week ceasefire halting airstrikes. The U.N. secretary-general's envoy also explored a visit to Iran to mediate the conflict, as the international community moved with greater urgency.
Up until just before announcing the deal, President Trump had issued a harsh warning to Iran's leadership, saying the entirety of Iranian civilization could be destroyed forever. U.S. and Israeli forces bombed key rail networks and infrastructure facilities day after day, including Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) also ratcheted up pressure by deploying hundreds of low-cost suicide drones. Iran countered by threatening that, with Yemen's Houthi rebels at the forefront, it could even shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait near the Red Sea. Domestically, civilians formed human chains encircling power plants, vowing to resist to the end.
As the two countries veered toward extremes, Pakistan, a third country, stepped in. According to Reuters, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir earnestly asked President Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks before it expired. Pakistan soon urged Iran's leadership to open the Strait of Hormuz, setting the stage for a dramatic turning point.
But the end of gunfire does not mean the end of the war. Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) immediately issued a statement acknowledging acceptance of the two-week truce while drawing a line that it "does not mean the end of the war." Iran then warned sternly, "Our finger is on the trigger."
Starting this Friday, delegations from both countries will gather in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital, to begin tough follow-up talks on postwar arrangements and key sticking points. For that reason, experts predicted the deal is more likely to serve as a two-week negotiating channel and a diplomatic probe by both sides to seize the initiative in the next phase amid a military standoff, rather than lead to a formal end to the war.
At the same time it accepted the ceasefire, Iran put forward a 10-point peace plan of its own. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and others reported that the bill included conditions that could upend the postwar Middle East order beyond a military truce. Specifically, Iran's plan called for a permanent end to hostilities as a baseline, guarantees against renewed attacks by the United States and Israel, and a comprehensive ceasefire extending to the Israel-Hezbollah front.
It also reportedly spelled out a full lifting of sanctions on Iran and its allies, formal recognition of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz and the imposition of transit fees, with those fees used for Iran's reconstruction and a portion shared with Oman. On top of that were demands tantamount to those of a victor state: a full withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Middle East bases, the unfreezing of Iranian asset, and full compensation for war damage.
Among them, the clause the United States would find hardest to accept is recognition of the "right to enrich uranium." If, as Iran argues, the United States were to publicly approve this right, it would mark a humiliating retreat that renders meaningless 47 years of hostility since the 1979 revolution and would be recorded as a failure of security policy. However, experts said Iran's demand appears unlikely to be accepted in practical terms.
The two sides also clash over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is most important to the international community. President Trump calls for a "complete opening" that would allow navigation as freely as before. Iran, by contrast, stresses "regulated passage" under Iranian military coordination. Iran's Foreign Ministry also said it could allow safe passage under military coordination for the next two weeks. It is seen as an expression of intent to maintain its military control over the strait even during the ceasefire. If the issue of control over the strait is not smoothly compromised at the practical navigation management level, oil prices are likely to wobble again in two weeks.
President Trump has described Iran's 10 points as a "workable basis" for negotiations. He then said, "Most of the issues have already been agreed upon, and we can finalize the agreement in two weeks," suggesting a stark divergence in the two sides' calculations.
Iran's proposal is entangled with multilayered interests, including those of Gulf oil producers and the global shipping industry. Demands such as a full lifting of economic sanctions on Iran, a U.S. troop withdrawal, maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, and collecting transit fees are not decisions Iran can make based on a bilateral deal with the United States alone. Therefore, experts expected that the odds of leaping straight to a "complete end to the war," with guns falling silent on all fronts in two weeks, are extremely slim.
Instead, a realistic scenario under discussion is a compromise in which the international community transits the Strait of Hormuz as before without Iranian attacks, while partially easing Iran-related sanctions or unfreezing part of its asset. The expectation is that both sides will find a face-saving middle ground and continue to extend the current precarious truce.
Al Jazeera, citing the SNSC statement, said, "The negotiation deadline can be extended by agreement of the parties," leaving room to extend the temporary framework. Some also said it cannot be ruled out that the two countries remain in a gray zone of "partial deal and low-intensity clashes." The prediction is that, while talks continue on the surface, on the ground there will be prolonged armed friction with Iran's allied forces and pro-Iran militias as before.