As international oil prices surge due to the Middle East war, some analysts say global energy policy has entered a phase of structural transition. Major countries that previously declared nuclear phaseouts are turning their attention back to nuclear power.
According to the New York Times (NYT) on the 6th, the war among the United States, Israel, and Iran is leaving the world struggling with a shortage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. With the Middle East—one of the main sources of LNG, a key fuel for power generation—constrained, nuclear power plants, which can provide relatively stable electricity, are reemerging.
Previously, countries around the world rapidly pushed nuclear phaseout policies after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear plant disaster in Japan. Taiwan and Italy decided to scale back or halt nuclear power, and Germany phased out a nuclear system that had accounted for about a quarter of its total electricity generation. But as the war triggers an unprecedented energy crisis, these countries are reportedly considering a return to nuclear power as a last resort.
Taiwan is a representative case attempting a policy shift. After closing its last reactor last year, Taiwan abruptly changed course as energy supply instability worsened. President Lai Ching-te said, "We have begun the approval process to restart the Guosheng and Maanshan nuclear plants." State-run utility Taipower submitted its Maanshan restart plan to the Nuclear Safety Commission on the 27th, and Minister Kung Ming-hsin released that "the restart could come as early as 2028."
Neighboring Japan is pursuing measures to extend the operating life of aging reactors to boost utilization. The Japanese government aims to raise the share of nuclear in electricity supply by source from 8.5% in 2024 to 20%–22% by 2030. Of 33 reactors that can operate nationwide, 10 have been restarted and three are reportedly under construction.
The so-called "anti-anti-nuclear" trend—abandoning nuclear phaseouts—is also being detected in Europe. Italy, considered the world's first nuclear phaseout country, decided to phase out nuclear power after the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine, but in 2024 it reversed that decision and is preparing to restart reactors from next year. Italy's electricity bills had already been identified as a burden on household finances—3.3 times higher than Korea's and 5.5 times higher than China's—and the war appears to have further intensified the need for a policy shift.
Belgium also formalized scrapping its nuclear phaseout through a parliamentary vote last year, while Sweden is expanding nuclear power and Poland, which has no nuclear plants yet, is reportedly pursuing new construction. On the 21st, in Switzerland, an upper house bill lifting the ban on new nuclear construction passed.
Experts predict the Middle East war could further solidify the political base of support for nuclear power.
David Brown, an energy sector researcher at consulting corporations Wood Mackenzie, said, "As long-term supply disruptions and rising electricity prices unfold, support for nuclear power on a 'new level' will form," adding, "We should watch whether governments have the capacity to finance new generation facilities."