Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang Chair Zheng Liwen will visit China from the 7th to the 12th. It will be the first visit to China by a Kuomintang chair in 10 years since 2016, and because it comes at a sensitive time about a month before a U.S.-China summit, it is expected to have a significant impact not only on cross-strait (China and Taiwan) relations but also on the U.S.-China dynamic.
According to Taiwan's United Daily News on the 7th, Chair Zheng will depart for China that day. After arriving in Shanghai in the afternoon, on the 8th Zheng will pay respects at Sun Yat-sen's tomb at Zhongshan Mausoleum in Nanjing. Zheng is then scheduled to travel to Beijing on the afternoon of the 9th. Accompanying the visit are Kuomintang Vice Chairs Zhang Longgong and Xiao Xiqian; Zhang Yaping, head of the Mainland Affairs Department; and Lian Shengwu, who oversees youth affairs.
◇ Key players in the KMT-CCP talks accompany the trip… will a meeting with Xi happen
Among the accompanying figures, Zhang Longgong was one of the key players who made possible the 2005 KMT-CCP talks (a meeting between leaders of Taiwan's Kuomintang and China's Communist Party), and Lian Shengwu is the son of Lien Chan, who was the Kuomintang chair and attended those talks at the time. This is why some view the visit as not merely expanding exchanges but as an extension of past KMT-CCP cooperation.
The format of China's invitation announcement was also unusual. Instead of a State Council Taiwan Affairs Office Spokesperson, China announced the invitation through the head of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Taiwan Affairs Office, raising the level compared with before. Chinese-language outlets including Hong Kong's Sing Tao Daily interpreted this as showing that China sees Chair Zheng's visit as significant. Zheng, for her part, is moving with speed by visiting China roughly 160 days after taking office.
The crux of Zheng's visit to China is whether a meeting with Xi will happen. If it takes place, it would be the first time in 10 years that Xi has met with a Kuomintang chair. When cross-strait relations were stable in 2015 (under Kuomintang rule), then-Chair Zhu Lilun met Xi, and after the Democratic Progressive Party took power, then-Chair Hung Hsiu-chu visited China in Oct. 2016 as opposition leader. On the 1st, Zheng called a meeting with Xi a "historic task that cannot be avoided," stressing the need for the encounter.
◇ The 'Taiwan card' rises ahead of the U.S.-China summit
The visit to China also intersects with U.S.-China relations. China invited Chair Zheng ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's mid-May visit to China, and it is seen as seeking to reaffirm its position on the Taiwan issue and secure diplomatic initiative through the visit.
In particular, military and security issues surrounding Taiwan are a core variable in U.S.-China tensions. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are a major point of contention between the two countries and are highly likely to be a key agenda item at the May summit. According to the New York Times (NYT), the Trump administration in February pushed arms sales to Taiwan worth about $13 billion (about 19.5741 trillion won) but did not announce them in consideration of China's backlash. Reuters and Hong Kong's Ming Pao reported that President Trump is highly likely to approve large-scale arms sales after the China visit. Analysts say not only whether to sell arms but also the timing of the announcement is being used as a bargaining chip.
Inside Taiwan, the China-friendly Kuomintang is clashing with the Democratic Progressive Party on military and security policy by blocking passage of the DPP's special defense budget act, which includes plans to purchase U.S. weapons. The Kuomintang has also begun impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te, who is China-skeptical, ratcheting up political pressure. However, it is seen more as an offensive than a move likely to lead to actual removal from office.
Amid this, Chair Zheng is drawing a line against the "pro-China, anti-U.S." framing surrounding the visit. In a U.S. NBC interview on the 4th, Zheng said, "Improving relations with the Chinese mainland does not damage relations with the United States. It is not zero-sum or a binary choice." Zheng added, "People do not want Taiwan to become 'the next Ukraine,'" stressing the need to ease tensions to avoid war.
President Lai expressed caution about Chair Zheng's conciliatory approach to China. On the 5th, Lai said, "Some people think that if you shake hands, engage, and compromise with authoritarian forces and give up sovereignty, you can obtain peace," adding, "But history teaches us that true peace is not gained by bowing to or compromising with authoritarianism."