Iran is continuing missile attacks on neighboring countries despite six weeks of airstrikes by the United States and Israel. In particular, over the weekend, for the first time since the war began, it shot down a U.S. fighter jet from its own airspace, flaunting that its strike capability remains intact.
On the 5th (local time), the Financial Times (FT) of the United Kingdom reported, "Iran has endured sustained, unretaliated airstrikes, communications blackouts, and targeted killings of senior commanders," and, "Contrary to Israeli and U.S. officials' claims that they have all but neutralized Iran's missile launch capability, Iran retains a limited but enduring ability to coordinate attacks."
Until now, the United States and Israel have claimed that Iran lost its missile attack capability. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a mid-month news conference last month, "Iran no longer has the ability to enrich uranium or to produce ballistic missiles." According to Israeli estimates, U.S.-Israeli attacks have disabled about 70% of Iran's missile launchers and stockpiles.
Recently, assessments of Iran's missile attack capability have shifted somewhat. The United States believes only about one-third of Iran's missile stockpile has been conclusively destroyed, and according to U.S. intelligence, the Iranian military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' engineering units are excavating and reactivating underground missile bunkers and silos that were destroyed or buried by bombing.
Iran still appears to maintain a substantial missile force. Bloomberg News reported, "Given the current pace of attacks by Iran and its allied forces, more than five weeks into the war, the conflict could drag on for months." Israel Army Radio estimated Hezbollah's missile holdings at between 8,000 and 10,000.
In particular, many of the missiles that remain are believed to be in locations that are difficult for the United States and Israel to track. Israel military Spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said, "The fewer that remain, the more precise the operation becomes," adding, "The threat decreases, but they become that much harder to find."
Experts analyzed that Iran's missile attacks are centered mainly on mobile launchers. Jonathan Ruhe, a researcher at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), a Washington-based think tank, said, "Even if more than 70% were destroyed or neutralized, mobile launchers are a more effective means for Iran to maintain a steady missile launch tempo."
Another factor enabling counterstrikes is that a centralized command-and-control system remains in place despite the elimination of much of Iran's military leadership. Analysts say this has already been demonstrated by Iran's ability to retask operations after striking specific targets recently, or to carry out additional attacks as retaliation.
Behind the Iranian military's continued functionality is the "Mosaic Defense" strategy that Iran has built over many years. Over decades, Iran developed a system under which regional commanders can conduct operations independently.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a U.S. think tank, explained, "The mosaic doctrine is designed to keep the system intact even when leadership is removed," adding, "It grants frontline commanders a high degree of autonomy, which is rare in the militaries of authoritarian states."
Earlier, Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X (formerly Twitter) in early last month, "We have studied the wars the U.S. military has faced on both the east and west over the past 20 years and have incorporated those lessons," adding, "A decentralized mosaic defense system allows us to choose the timing and manner of war."
Iran's counterstrikes are expected to continue for some time. The FT said, "Few believe Iran will completely run out of missiles," adding, "The Iranian military appears capable of sustaining its current attacks with only a small number of missiles per day."