The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+, a consultative body of major oil producers, decided to slightly increase crude output starting in May. However, with supply disruptions severe due to the Middle East war, the real impact is expected to be limited.
According to foreign media on the 5th local time, eight key producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — held a video conference and agreed to increase daily production in May by about 206,000 barrels.
The scale of this increase is assessed to be only about 2% of the crude supply blocked by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that more than 12 million barrels per day of supply is currently halted.
Accordingly, the market sees this step as more symbolic than a solution to the shortage. With the Middle East war worsening production and export conditions for major producers, some countries also have limited capacity to boost output due to damage to domestic energy facilities.
Even so, OPEC+ is seen as signaling to the market through this decision that it can move to expand production immediately once conditions stabilize.
The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) said in a separate statement, "Attacks on energy infrastructure threaten supply stability," and "It will take considerable time and expense to restore damaged facilities to normal levels."
Meanwhile, OPEC+ has adjusted output by gradually reversing voluntary cuts since 2023, temporarily pausing increases in the first quarter of this year before recently shifting back to an expansionary stance.