Reuters reported on the 3rd (local time) that U.S. intelligence agencies issued an analysis placing weight on the likelihood that Iran will not lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz early. As the war waged by the United States and Israel shows signs of dragging on, concerns over a global energy crisis and inflation are deepening.
On the 3rd (local time), Reuters cited multiple senior officials from the Trump administration as saying that U.S. intelligence authorities recently prepared a report stating, "There is a high probability that Iran will maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz for the time being." The view is that Iran will not easily give up the bargaining power it secured by controlling the world's largest oil shipping route.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered a key chokepoint through which 20% of the world's crude oil passes. From Iran's perspective, seizing the strait is the only practical bargaining lever to pressure the United States. By blocking this route and keeping global energy prices high, it can pressure the Trump administration to wrap up the war quickly. Rising energy expense is likely to fuel domestic inflation in the United States, creating a political burden for President Trump ahead of the midterm elections in Nov.
President Trump has hinted at confidence, saying he can use military force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The previous day, Trump wrote on the social media platform Truth Social, "Give us just a little more time and we can easily open the Strait of Hormuz, seize the oil, and make a lot of money."
But security experts note that military operations would be extremely risky given the strait's narrow and rugged nature. The narrowest section is only 33 km wide, and the two-way shipping lanes are just 3 km wide, making deployed forces and warships easy targets. Ali Vaez, Director General of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said, "The United States tried to prevent Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction but handed it weapons of mass disruption," adding, "Even a drone or two can block ship traffic and exert deterrence."
The prevailing outlook is that Iran will use control of the strait as a bargaining chip even after the war ends. Former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director General Bill Burns appeared on the Foreign Affairs podcast and said, "There is a high possibility that Iran will try to maintain the influence it regained in the Strait of Hormuz." He further analyzed that, during peace talks, Iran is highly likely to demand long-term deterrence and regime security guarantees and continue to seek economic gains, such as collecting tolls from merchant ships to raise funds for national reconstruction. The former director general added, "This situation foreshadows very difficult negotiations ahead."