As armed clashes in the Middle East spiral out of control, Argentina has effectively begun steps toward a near-total severing of ties with Iran. The Argentine government, after officially designating Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—a key military organization under the Iranian regular forces—as a terrorist organization, said on the 2nd (local time) that it will expel Iran's highest-ranking diplomat stationed in the country. In diplomatic circles, expelling a diplomat is not a temporary diplomatic spat but a step taken just short of cutting ties.
On the 2nd, local outlet La Nación reported that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs designated Mohsen Tehrani, Iran's chargé d'affaires ad interim in Buenos Aires, as persona non grata and issued an immediate expulsion order. Persona non grata means "an unwelcome person," a diplomatic term for a figure the host nation refuses to accept. It signals that Argentina has defined Iran as a deadly security threat directly tied to national sovereignty and elevated Iran-related relations to a top-tier issue threatening national security.
Earlier, on the 31st of last month, the Argentine government codified the IRGC, which currently oversees the Iran war, as a terrorist organization. When Iran harshly condemned the act of designating a state organ as a terror entity, Argentina ordered the expulsion of the diplomat as a retaliatory measure. Responding to Iran's criticism, the Argentine government said it was "false and aggressive," adding that "the denunciation of the Revolutionary Guard's terrorist designation is an unacceptable interference in Argentina's internal affairs."
Argentina's judiciary has long identified Iran and Hezbollah as behind the 1992 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Argentina and the 1994 large-scale bombing at a Jewish center in Buenos Aires that claimed dozens of lives. Under the Javier Milei administration, which prioritizes economic recovery, the pro-U.S., pro-Israel line has become even clearer. The Milei government said last year it would move the Argentine Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. In diplomatic circles, this is seen as a diplomatic declaration that Argentina will take Israel's side in international disputes.
Before Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Australia in succession demanded that Iran's ambassadors leave, a development that also attests to this shifting international trend. Lebanon's foreign ministry on the 24th of last month strongly demanded that Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheybani depart within 48 hours. Although Sheybani has refused Beirut's request and remains at the embassy, the Lebanese government's official stance remains resolute. Lebanon is a Middle Eastern country close to Iran. But because of Hezbollah's unilateral military actions as Iran's proxy, the entire country is bearing the brunt of war damage. In the current war, as Hezbollah moved in step with Iran to attack Israel, more than 1,200 people have been killed in Lebanon and over 1 million have fled.
Australia, ahead of the outbreak of the Iran war, was the first in the world last August to expel Iran's ambassador and affiliated diplomats en masse. The Australian government suspects Iran may be behind the anti-Jewish arson incidents in Sydney and Melbourne last August.
Experts suggested that this chain of diplomat expulsions goes beyond expressions of dissatisfaction at the individual national level and indicates that international security wariness toward Iran has reached a peak. The analysis is that countries are uniformly moving to keep their distance in earnest, regarding Iran's involvement as an erosion of national control.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing experts, reported that "how to set relations with Iran has broadened into a yardstick that simultaneously divides diplomatic issues from the fate of defense security." President Donald Trump has recently pressed allies hard over the Iran war phase and built an all-out pressure front. A prime example was publicly chiding Korea and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) the previous day for failing to do their part. On the 1st, Trump issued a harsh ultimatum to major European countries that "unless you actively participate in the Strait of Hormuz joint fleet operation, we will completely halt the supply of weapons for the Ukraine war." The United States is thus increasingly using even weapons support, directly tied to ally security, as a negotiating lever.
Some predict that the diplomatic paradigm toward Iran will shift from calculating economic gains such as oil price fluctuations or energy supply-and-demand balances to a camp alignment that questions alliance security and national identity. There is also speculation that unless countries decisively distance themselves from Iran, they could be thoroughly excluded from the U.S.-led global supply chain and a robust security umbrella.
However, at this moment, not every country has the latitude to move in a hard-line direction like Argentina or Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery that determines the flow of a quarter of the world's crude oil and natural gas. For Asian importers such as Korea and Japan that receive energy through it, relations with Iran, which holds the strait, are a critical lifeline.
The Philippines set aside ideology and approached the issue in strictly pragmatic terms. To secure the safety of its fuel tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the Philippines recently contacted the Iranian government directly and obtained a pledge of safe passage. Although the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration is strongly pro-U.S. due to containing China and responding to South China Sea security, it chose a practical diplomatic line to put out the immediate fire. Reuters said, "Given the Philippines' overwhelming dependence on Saudi Arabian crude, close communication with Iran is an essential national survival strategy."
By contrast, countries approaching energy self-sufficiency like Argentina are expected to make bold political decisions. Analysts say responses to Iran will sharply diverge depending on energy import dependence and the geopolitical crises each country faces. Argentina has recently developed the Vaca Muerta region, a world-class shale gas and shale oil deposit, significantly improving its energy self-sufficiency. Domestic gasoline prices may fluctuate somewhat due to the Middle East war's aftershocks, but cutting ties with Iran will not immediately collapse the nation's energy security.
The Guardian said, "The hard-line bloc against Iran will not necessarily be composed only of oil producers or energy powers, but countries that have at least successfully diversified supply chains or prepared buffers to smoothly absorb domestic shocks are likely to take the lead."