President Donald Trump is pressuring the alliance system by once again pulling out the option of withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The argument that NATO is useless, which surfaced when talks over buying Greenland began, is growing harsher, with the current war in Iran as the inflection point.
On the 1st (local time), after European member states refused to dispatch warships to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz near Iran, President Trump effectively formalized a NATO withdrawal. In an interview with the Telegraph in the United Kingdom that day, when asked whether he would reconsider maintaining NATO membership, Trump said he was "past the reconsideration stage" and was "strongly considering" withdrawal.
He added, "We are pouring trillions of dollars into NATO, but some member states are playing the role of 'bad allies.'" In particular, he expressed strong displeasure at European countries that are not helping Israel and the United States regarding the war in Iran. Trump added, "I knew NATO was a paper tiger, and Putin (the Russian president) knows it too."
Reuters reported that Trump cited Europe's refusal to join the U.S. military operation to secure safe passage for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz as a reason for considering withdrawal. Most of the major member states next to the United States in NATO's hierarchy are currently stepping back, reluctant to become mired in the Middle East conflict. France did not allow Israel to use its airspace to transport weapons for the war in Iran. The United Kingdom and Germany drew a line under support, saying they would "not be drawn into a bigger war." More recently, Spain's government even banned U.S. military aircraft from passing through its airspace.
That does not mean the alliance effectively managed the Russia-Ukraine battlefield while the Middle East is in turmoil. According to the Kyiv Independent, Russia's Ministry of National Defense said on the 1st that it had completed the occupation of Luhansk oblast. Luhansk, together with Donetsk oblast, is a key area in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas. Russia has claimed the area as its own territory and has demanded it as a condition for ending the war. While this region fell into Russian hands, NATO failed to show its presence on both fronts in the Middle East and Ukraine. The cynical view is spreading that, without the United States, it is a "scarecrow" organization whose independent warfighting and deterrence capabilities drop sharply.
However, it will not be easy for the United States to leave NATO solely by executive action as Trump intends. To guard against abrupt actions during Trump's first term, Congress codified a provision in the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) barring a president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO. Under the provision, withdrawal requires the consent of at least two-thirds of the Senate or a separate act of Congress. Citing experts, CNN analyzed that "although there is a Justice Department opinion that a president has the authority to terminate treaties, it would be difficult to override a statute that Congress has explicitly limited."
Politico, a politics-focused outlet, reported, citing U.S. Ministry of National Defense officials and diplomats, that "there are no signs yet that a concrete withdrawal process or related discussions have begun within the administration." But experts said that even the repeated mention of withdrawal by the U.S. president—who plays the central role in NATO—has hurt internal cohesion. Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, warned, "Instead of a formal withdrawal that requires congressional approval, Trump could neutralize NATO by pulling out U.S. troops or removing them from the command structure."
Some also said that if the United States weakens the multilateral security framework of NATO, the first to be hit—paradoxically—would be the United States itself. Reuters assessed that NATO is not merely a military alliance that protects Europe, but a core network for projecting U.S. deterrence globally. U.S. bases and logistics networks spread across Europe, including Germany and Turkey, under the NATO alliance, serve as forward operating bases for operations in the Middle East, the Arctic, and the Atlantic. If it leaves NATO, the United States would have to rebuild these security assets, which it has developed over decades, without help from allies.
The economic losses cannot be ignored either. U.S. defense heavyweights such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin have developed new weapons systems in line with Europe's rearmament trend. If the United States steps outside the NATO fence, European countries are likely to develop their own weapons systems or seek alternative suppliers. That would lead to weakened competitiveness and declining market share for U.S. defense corporations. Citing experts, Politico reported, "If trust among allies plunges to the bottom, it will become harder for the United States to secure partner cooperation in future international conflicts," and that "although the Trump administration's pressure on NATO may look like an attempt to improve U.S. security efficiency, in reality it could be a self-defeating move that injures the United States' tangible and intangible strategic assets."