As the war between the United States and Iran entered its 32nd day, China's approach, which had been close to silence at the outset to avoid provoking the United States and Israel, has clearly changed. Having kept its distance and watched the situation, China has joined hands with Pakistan and stepped forward as an active mediator.
On the 1st, according to reports from major outlets including The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Al Jazeera, Wang Yi, China's Minister of Foreign Affairs, held talks in Beijing the previous day with Ishaq Dar, Pakistan's deputy prime minister and foreign minister, and announced five proposals to stabilize the situation in the Middle East. The key points are an immediate halt to hostilities, the prompt start of peace talks, guarantees for the safety of civilians and critical infrastructure, restoration of normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and prioritizing the U.N. Charter.
Earlier, Iran dismissed any interest in a negotiating plan that included provisions such as a complete halt to uranium enrichment, dismantling of key nuclear facilities, and an end to the ballistic missile program. By contrast, Pakistan called the new proposal with China a balanced plan that everyone can accept. U.S. President Donald Trump also offered an optimistic view that day on the possibility of a cease-fire deal with Iran, saying "there is a chance of reaching a deal because they (Iran) want it."
Until announcing this joint initiative, China avoided directly intervening in the Middle East crisis. Even as armed clashes spread uncontrollably, it limited itself to issuing principled calls for peace. It neither voiced criticism nor openly sided with Iran, a former ally, even when the country was hit by airstrikes from the United States and Israel. The move is seen as an extreme effort to avoid an unfortunate head-on clash with the United States by appearing to actively support Iran. Some described it as China's traditional tao guang yang hui approach—carefully watching the situation and minimizing diplomatic friction by not flaunting its capabilities and waiting for the right moment.
But the situation changed rapidly as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz stretched beyond a month. With logistics around the strait completely paralyzed and the global energy supply chain shaken to its core, a sense of crisis grew within China that it could no longer stand by. The Strait of Hormuz is the beating heart of global energy, accounting for 20% of the world's seaborne oil trade. Major global shipping companies have now fully halted passage there due to soaring war risk premiums and the danger of vessel attacks.
For China, whose economy is underpinned by export-driven manufacturing, disruptions in crude supply are a crippling headwind that rattles the entire national economy. China is hanging on by releasing strategic reserves and increasing imports of Russian crude, but as the war drags on, fears of cascading shutdowns across industry are mounting. Henry Tugendhat, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told the pro-U.S. outlet Alhurra that "the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as China's biggest headache, as it is the chokepoint through which 45% of China's crude oil imports pass."
In presenting this mediation plan, China put Pakistan out front instead of taking the lead itself. If China were to face the United States directly while pushing a mediation proposal, it could morph into a hegemonic rivalry and backfire. So it made full use of Pakistan, a long-standing ally of both China and Iran that has already served as a go-between between the United States and Iran in this war. By letting Pakistan take the lead, China is taking on a heavyweight guarantor role from behind.
Even if the United States and Iran fail to reach an agreement, China can offload the diplomatic burden a mediator would bear onto Pakistan. Conversely, if talks succeed, China can elevate its international standing as the effective force behind Middle East peace. Citing Middle East expert Saeed, Al Jazeera analyzed that "the on-the-ground shuttle diplomacy led by Pakistan is a low-risk, high-efficiency tool," adding, "it allows China to press hard for de-escalation without confronting the United States directly, enhancing credibility."
Experts said Iran would find it hard, in practical terms, to reject China's mediation. After years of Western sanctions and now this war, Iran is experiencing an economic crisis that threatens national survival. To sustain the regime, it urgently needs economic support from China, its largest trading partner and a dependable ally.
China likewise does not want a scenario in which Iran's regime collapses or takes extreme resistance measures that turn the entire Middle East into a powder keg. The mediation is also seen as a multi-pronged gambit to persuade Iran with a mix of carrot and stick and to secure safety in the Strait of Hormuz. Quoting experts, Al Jazeera said, "Senior Chinese officials judge that a stable U.S.-Iran relationship aligns with China's core interests," and "they are firmly linking the resumption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz and regional peace and stability to the support for mediation."
Some analysts also say the decision to support mediation is driven by a calculation to reshape the U.S.-centric order in the Middle East. President Trump has postponed his originally scheduled visit to China due to the war's fallout and plans to return to Beijing in May. With Trump's trip ahead, speculation is growing that China, which needs a powerful bargaining chip to steer a host of pending issues such as trade disputes to its advantage, will leverage this mediation effort.