Israel and U.S. airstrikes have hit the leadership and key infrastructure, but Iran's regime is holding up more firmly than expected. Analysts say the reason the Iranian system does not easily collapse, even amid economic hardship, international sanctions, and mounting internal discontent, is a unique power structure bound by "economic interests."
According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), only about 20% of Iranians support the regime. But this minority is not a simple base of supporters; it is a community of interest that shares its livelihood with the regime. The WSJ explained that the longer the regime stays in power, the more these people benefit, and if the system collapses, their livelihood base collapses with it. This network tightly intertwines groups from clerics to paramilitary units to ordinary citizens.
◇ A "military-clerical complex" that controls half the economy
At its center is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). With at least 125,000 paid personnel, the IRGC extends far beyond military might to dominate the economy at large. It effectively controls the national economy by taking over core industries such as oil, gas, and telecommunications, as well as consumer goods distribution. The long-term contract volume of Khatam al-Anbiya, the largest construction firm under the IRGC, stands at about $50 billion, equal to 14% of Iran's gross domestic product (GDP).
Conservative cleric-run religious foundations join in, forming what is called a military-clerical complex. The Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think tank, analyzed that these entities control more than 50% of Iran's economy. Slots vacated by Western corporations that withdrew due to sanctions have largely been taken over by these organizations.
◇ From college admissions to jobs: clear rewards for "loyalty"
The Iranian regime maintains its loyal base on the back of this economic structure. Those who participate in Basij (a volunteer militia under the IRGC) activities or show loyalty receive not only cash subsidies and low-interest loans but also preferential admission to elite universities and extra points for jobs at public institutions. The WSJ said corporations under the IRGC lure elite young people into the system by offering wages up to five times higher than ordinary corporations.
About 700,000 Basij members, who are at the forefront of street control and protest crackdowns, also hold key posts across society and maintain their vested interests. For them, defending the regime is the same as protecting their social status and assets.
This structure, in which millions are bound by economic interests, makes systemic change difficult. Even if there is anti-government sentiment, it is hard for the millions who benefit from the current setup to turn away easily. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said, "For those who receive benefits in exchange for loyalty, the collapse of the system means personal bankruptcy," adding, "The likelihood that they will voluntarily turn their backs on the regime is low."
In the end, what sustains Iran is not faith in God but a powerful web of economic fear and collusion — the belief that "if the regime falls, I go bankrupt too." This is also why external military pressure or sanctions alone do not easily shake it.