As war continues among the United States, Israel, and Iran, analysts say China and Russia's refusal to directly aid their long‑time ally Iran reflects a "strategic calculation." Outwardly they are keeping their distance, but behind the scenes they are helping Iran in indirect ways.
On the 30th (local time), the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) said, "China and Russia's response to this strike has been limited to criticizing the United States, but such restraint should not be mistaken for inaction." It added that Russia has provided Iran with satellite images on the locations and movement routes of U.S. troops, ships, and aircraft.
Earlier, the Washington Post (WP) quoted anonymous officials earlier this month as saying, "Russia passed Iran location data on U.S. facilities, including warships and aircraft." Iran, which possesses only a few military satellites, saw its ability to track U.S. positions drop sharply within a week of the war's outbreak, but it reportedly began continuing attacks targeting U.S. facilities based on support from Russia.
The reason China and Russia are supporting Iran under the table is that Iran's collapse could strengthen U.S. hegemony. China and Russia have sought to build a multipolar order countering the United States by pushing Iran's entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and participation in BRICS. If the United States secures the upper hand in Iran through this war, much of the diplomatic gains they have accumulated could be significantly weakened.
In particular, for China, which has been supplied with discounted Iranian oil due to Western sanctions, a U.S. victory would mean energy hegemony shifting to the United States. According to the General Administration of Customs (GAC) of China, the country depends on the Middle East for about 42% of its crude oil imports and 31% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG). If supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, China's energy security would inevitably suffer significant damage.
The Atlantic Council also said on the 28th in a report titled "From drones to rocket fuel: China and Russia are supporting Iran through supply chains" that China and Russia are aiding Iran via an anti‑U.S. network called the "Axis of Evasion." The "Axis of Evasion" refers to a sanctions‑busting network formed as China imports oil from countries under Western sanctions and provides dual‑use technology.
These countries have circumvented Western sanctions through the "Axis of Evasion," and this strategy has proven effective in the recent Iran war as well. The suicide drones serving as Iran's main weapons in this war rely on various imported parts such as electronics, engines, and semiconductors, which Iran procures via China. Since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Iran has provided drones and related technology to Russia, and it is now reportedly receiving drones from Russia instead.
While Russia has provided satellite imagery and drone technology to Iran, China is moving to support navigation technology. Citing experts, the Atlantic Council said Iranian weapons are using Chinese satellite systems. China has even provided Iran with its domestically developed BeiDou satellite navigation system, which Iran is said to use to generate jamming signals to conceal military movements.
Some also argue that to block Iran's military rebuilding after the war, the United States must actively counter the structure in which China and Russia support the Iranian regime and circumvent sanctions and export controls. The Atlantic Council said, "China, Russia, and Iran continue to cooperate and evade sanctions, while the United States has lacked consistency in enforcement," adding, "It is necessary to track Iran's procurement networks, which use multiple intermediaries and logistics chains, through the mid‑stages and sanction them."