The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 28th (local time) that in Cuba, which has been pushed to the brink of collapse under U.S. pressure, the Castro family is instead stepping back to the forefront. As demands for regime change grow under pressure from the Donald Trump administration and the regime faces the brink of collapse, core members of the once-reclusive family have all emerged at the front of negotiations. They have dealt directly with the U.S. secretary of state and led secret talks, and have even personally put a market-opening card on the table to preserve the system.
Energy is at the heart of this crisis. As the United States has demanded that Venezuela stop supplying crude oil to Cuba, the entire country has fallen into a fuel shortage. The economy has contracted sharply, and with shortages of food and daily necessities piling on, social unrest is spreading. The United States is using this as an opening to press for systemic change. In a speech in Miami, Florida, on the 27th, President Trump said, "I said there would be no need to use American military force, but sometimes you have to. Anyway, Cuba is next," ratcheting up the pressure. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said, "It is hard to resolve this under the current leadership," effectively suggesting the need for a transfer of power.
On the surface, President Miguel Díaz-Canel is steering state affairs. But the prevailing view is that real power still lies with former Chair Raúl Castro, 94. He succeeded his brother Fidel Castro and ruled from 2008 to 2018 before stepping down, but is assessed to have maintained de facto influence through the military and state-owned corporations. Early this month, President Díaz-Canel referred to the person leading negotiations with the United States as a "historical leader of the revolution," a reference to Raúl Castro.
Family members have also stepped to the fore. The NYT reported that Raúl's grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, 41, has emerged as a new protagonist in the crisis. Known as "Raúlito," he reportedly made direct contact recently with representatives of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Saint Kitts and Nevis. A former member of Raúl's security detail, he now serves as Raúl's personal aide. This month, he appeared on state television alongside top officials, revealing his move to the front lines of negotiations.
Raúl's only son, Alejandro Castro Espín, 60, is also said to be deeply involved in negotiations with the United States. He led talks to improve relations with the Obama administration in 2014, disappeared from public view for a time, and has reemerged amid the current crisis.
New faces are also rising. The NYT assessed that Deputy Prime Minister Óscar Pérez Oliva Fraga, 54, is another family figure who has suddenly come to the fore. A relative of the family, he recently announced the most radical opening policy since the 1959 revolution, allowing Cuban exiles to invest in corporations back home. In Washington, he is drawing attention as the "Cuban Delcy Rodríguez." Without using the surname "Castro" and savvy about international business practices, he is seen as a potential face who could stabilize the system by appropriately accommodating U.S. demands. The NYT said, "His pragmatic approach, his status as an insider, and the fact that he does not use the 'Castro' surname make him a figure the U.S. administration may prefer."
Experts warn against underestimating the Castro family's cohesion. Cuba, after years of purges and information control, has a structure with virtually no internal splits among the elite. Ricardo Zúñiga, a former U.S. government official, said there is no alternative force in Cuba like in Venezuela, and analyzed it as "a move to adjust only the power structure while maintaining the system." Andrés Pertierra, a historian at the University of Wisconsin, also said, "On the surface it may look post-Castro, but actual power may still remain with the family."
In the end, Cuba may appear to be changing, but the center of power is not moving. The interpretation is that it is not the end of the Castro family, but only a change in the shape of power.