As the United States is reported to have deployed about 7,000 ground troops around Iran, analysts say seven islands in the Strait of Hormuz could be the first targets if ground forces are committed.
On the 29th (local time), CNN reported that seven islands forming the Strait of Hormuz's "arch-shaped defensive line" could be priority targets for U.S. ground troops. On the east side of the strait: ▲ Hormuz ▲ Larak ▲ Qeshm ▲ Hengam; and on the west side: ▲ Abu Musa ▲ Greater Tunb ▲ Lesser Tunb.
Previously, media outlets largely focused on Kharg Island. Because Iran's oil infrastructure is concentrated there and it handles about 90% of the country's oil exports, the calculation was that striking it could have a significant impact on Iran's economy.
However, given that Kharg Island is located deep inside the Persian Gulf, it appears the practical first targets would be the seven islands. Academia has named the curve formed by consolidation of these seven islands the "arch-shaped defensive line."
If the U.S. Navy moves into the Persian Gulf, it would first encounter the eastern islands of ▲ Hormuz ▲ Larak ▲ Qeshm ▲ Hengam. These islands lie within Iran's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and are close to the mainland.
After that, it would find the western islands of ▲ Abu Musa ▲ Greater Tunb ▲ Lesser Tunb, which are also the sites of sovereignty disputes between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Last year, Alireza Tangsiri, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy commander, was quoted as saying, "We must arm and operationalize this island group." Tangsiri, however, recently died in an Israeli airstrike.
The problem is that to seize these islands, warships must pass from the eastern side of the strait, and attacks using missiles and other weapons could be launched from eastern islands such as Larak.
Even if the islands are captured, if drones and missiles are launched from Iran's mainland, there is a high likelihood of additional casualties. So far, 13 U.S. troops have been killed while conducting the Middle East war.
Even so, these islands are assessed to be more valuable targets than Kharg Island. Carl Schuster, former director of operations at the Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center, said, "Seizing the three western islands is strategically advantageous for U.S. forces," adding, "It would also pose less risk of damaging Iran's economy."