The Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East oil shipping chokepoint that was on the brink of a total shutdown, will reopen on a limited basis.
On the 25th, Reuters said the Iranian government recently sent an official Seohan Engineering & Construction to the U.N. Security Council and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) specifying rules for the passage of non-hostile vessels. The letter is said to state that ships that closely coordinate their sailing schedules and routes in advance with Iranian maritime authorities can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's top diplomatic ranks have also launched an all-out push to persuade key allies and core energy importers. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held an emergency call with Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the 24th and "directly conveyed the plan to open the Strait of Hormuz to all countries except the belligerents." According to China, Minister Araghchi also stressed in the call that Iran is leading a full cease-fire in the Middle East.
The previous day, before China, Minister Araghchi also had a call with Minister Cho Hyun of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In that call, Araghchi conveyed a hard-line stance that the strait would remain firmly closed to ships belonging to the hostile camp, including the United States and Israel, and to the sponsor countries that support them. Experts interpreted it as a strong external warning message that the decision on passage through the strait would be strictly differentiated by a ship's nationality and final destination.
Iran's preemptive step to document, through international organizations, its policy of selectively allowing passage is aimed at appropriately dispersing international criticism and minimizing the economic damage to major allies. Matt Smith, a senior analyst at analytics firm Kpler, said Iran is newly pursuing a calibrated strategy of allowing selective vessel transit instead of a full supply cutoff.
The move appears intended to partially ease the global energy supply chain paralysis triggered by sweeping maritime controls, while thoroughly isolating the United States and Israel—key parties to the conflict—from international trade networks. It is a sophisticated gray-zone tactic that inflicts damage across adversaries' economies while reducing the burden of international opinion to a degree. By introducing a maritime passage permit regime cloaked in legality, instead of simple hard-line measures such as detaining or seizing ships by force, Iran can demonstrate a measure of control over the global shipping industry.
However, the shipping industry said that even if Iran allows limited passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the astronomically surging burden of marine insurance, along with the need to accept Iranian maritime authorities' control each time and to coordinate in advance, remains a major obstacle due to uncertainty. If the United States and Israel openly oppose Iran's selective control measures and take additional military action near the Hormuz area, the strait's route could close again at any time.