As it has come to light that the Trump administration in the United States held secret negotiations behind the scenes with Iran's leadership, global attention is focusing on who is effectively governing Iran from the shadows after the killings of the current No. 1 and No. 2 in the hierarchy plunged the country into extreme chaos.
Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, died on the 28th of last month, the day U.S. and Israeli airstrikes broke out. After that, Ali Larijani, the secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) who had filled his vacancy, was also removed on the 17th. To make matters worse, Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei's son and a strong contender to succeed him as the next supreme leader, has also disappeared. Views differ widely on Mojtaba, ranging from rumors of his death to claims that he is being treated for injuries from the airstrikes in places like Russia, but none of it has been confirmed.
In a vacuum where the top leaders guiding the country have vanished one after another, U.S. President Donald Trump on the 23rd (local time) suddenly hinted at the possibility of ending the war, saying the United States and Iran had "agreed on almost all issues." This raised the question of who inside Iran, where the power center has collapsed, is actually leading the talks with the United States.
According to a compilation of reports on the 24th (local time) from major outlets including Reuters, Axios and Politico, the U.S. negotiating team dispatched by the Trump administration is said to have spoken with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran's parliament. The political outlet Politico, citing multiple White House officials, said, "The Trump administration is considering Ghalibaf as a potential partner and future leader."
However, the Iranian government on this day strongly denied through official channels that there had been any talks at all. Ghalibaf himself also drew a line on social media, saying he had "never negotiated with the United States." But as it became known that Ghalibaf is relaying messages to neighboring countries acting as mediators, such as Pakistan and Egypt, diplomatic circles are increasingly assuming Ghalibaf is the Iranian counterpart actually facing President Trump.
Ghalibaf, whom the United States is reported to have contacted, is a core power figure who is a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) general and served as mayor of the capital, Tehran. He is currently considered one of Mojtaba's closest aides, who has gone into seclusion. There are even unconfirmed rumors that Mojtaba left Iran for medical treatment at a time when he needed to swiftly inherit power after the supreme leader's death. Even if he steps to the forefront of Iran's power, concerns are growing over whether the Iranian public—already discontented with the theocratic system—will readily follow Mojtaba.
Experts have offered various interpretations of why Ghalibaf has come to the fore amid all this. It is unclear whether he entered talks with the United States merely as Mojtaba's proxy, or whether, as speaker of parliament, he made a political decision for Iran based on his own pragmatic convictions. However, experts interpreted the fact that he, having served in both the military and politics, is communicating with the United States and leading negotiations to mean that within Iran's top leadership, which faces collapse, pragmatic figures from the military are securing primary speaking power and steering the political situation. The analysis is that a practical judgment has taken hold that choosing tangible gains over a reckless full-scale war is decisively advantageous for regime survival.
Beyond Ghalibaf, there are still a few heavyweight figures in Iran who have survived the pounding by Israel and the United States and are moving the political landscape. A representative figure is Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. He is currently taking it upon himself to represent Iran's official position in the international community. He controls external channels and employs a dual strategy of loudly calling for a fierce fight against the United States on the surface while seeking a diplomatic solution behind the scenes through neighboring countries.
Saeed Jalili, a member of the National Leadership Operations Council, is a key pillar of the hard-line conservatives. He is the top intelligence hand on Iran's security and a behind-the-scenes power who once led nuclear talks with Western countries. He is seen as holding the keys to Iran's internal security strategy and nuclear policy direction amid the vacancy at the top of Iran's leadership. Alireza Arafi, the vice chair of the Assembly of Experts and a senior cleric, plays a central role in maintaining the ideological foundation of the theocratic system while soothing conservative public opinion.
On the military front line, the position of Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the IRGC Navy, is firm. Tangsiri is currently overseeing and commanding the operation to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the greatest lifeline of the global energy market. With military tensions in the strait at their peak, U.S. and Israeli military authorities are watching his every move.
Reuters analyzed that after Khamenei's death, Iran built a power-sharing governance structure with multilayered institutions rather than relying on a few individuals for power. Experts also assessed that figures like Ghalibaf, whom the United States has identified as a dialogue partner, are far more likely to be temporary crisis managers put forward after internal coordination by Iran's power bloc than singular absolute rulers.
For this reason, even if the United States is confident that peace talks are in the final stage, there remains a risk the agreement will collapse if Iran's chronic factional conflicts reemerge. Larijani, the secretary-general who just previously led Iran, had represented the moderate conservatives in the past, but after painstakingly opening a channel for dialogue with the United States, he failed to reach an agreement under fierce pushback from hard-liners. As a result, on the 17th Larijani died along with his son, an aide and a bodyguard in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.
The hard-liners in the military and security line, led by Jalili and Tangsiri, are still brandishing force while calling for bloody revenge and a fight to the death. They define compromising with the United States as a grave betrayal of the spirit of the Islamic Revolution. If a clear leader cannot fully rein in hard-line discontent inside Iran, there is ample room for a fierce backlash at any time.
Axios, citing an expert, said, "If internal differences in perspective surface in Iran over whether to accept U.S. demands, the negotiation channel will collapse as well," adding, "If a negotiator with a weak domestic support base faces resistance from hard-liners, they could instead pivot to even more provocative external military actions."