Cuba, mired in its worst-ever power crisis after the United States imposed sweeping economic shutdowns, has launched full-scale military drills to prepare for a possible U.S. invasion. After U.S. President Donald Trump poured out remarks implying that he "could take Cuba by force," signaling an intent to pursue regime change, Cuba is responding with brinkmanship under the banner of defending its sovereignty. As the two former Cold War adversaries openly invoke the extreme scenario of armed conflict instead of dialogue, geopolitical tension is rising across the Caribbean.
On the 22nd (local time), according to a roundup of major outlets including Reuters, Fox News and NBC, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, Cuba's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, appeared on NBC's Sunday program Meet the Press and said, "Our military is always ready, and we are conducting live exercises in recent days to prepare for the possibility of military aggression."
He said, "It would be very naive to make no preparations while watching what is happening around the world," adding, "We sincerely hope that the tragic scenario of U.S. military action does not occur, but as a sovereign nation we have the right and the need to protect ourselves." The remarks came right after President Trump threatened in a series of recent public comments that he "expects to enjoy the honor of taking over Cuba."
Cuba is effectively paralyzed under the Trump administration's powerful economic sanctions. The U.S.-led maritime blockade of crude oil has triggered a nationwide collapse of the power grid, a so-called "blackout." Some areas have restored power, but most regions still cannot produce food due to power shortages, and food and daily necessities are running out as a result.
The United States has recently been intensifying Cuba's power shortages and economic crisis in a bid to engineer a Venezuela-style regime change. After ousting Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro regime, the U.S. administration shifted its target to Cuba and has maintained maximum economic pressure. On the 16th, President Trump said, "I believe I will enjoy the honor of taking over Cuba," and announced that he had blocked channels for funds and crude oil bound for Cuba.
Cuba's Communist Party regime sat down with the United States at the start of this month to seek a solution. But Washington is demanding regime change as a baseline condition, and the talks are going nowhere. Cuba still has a firmly entrenched one-party Communist system. U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio said at a recent briefing, "Cuba is in serious trouble, and its current leadership has no ability to fix it," adding, "Only completely new people must take power," ratcheting up the pressure.
Cuba has taken a hard line that it cannot possibly accept any demand for a system change. Vice Minister de Cossío drew a line, saying, "The nature of the Cuban government, its governing structure and its personnel composition are the inherent prerogatives of a sovereign nation," and "they cannot be the subject of any negotiation." Asked about introducing a multiparty system, he responded with a sharp critique of the U.S. political system.
He said, "The United States has an unfair system in which only two massive parties exist that, backed by enormous financial power, can dominate the presidency and Congress," dismissing that "the U.S. government, too, would never comply if another country coercively demanded a constitutional change." He added, however, that "we are open to having meaningful talks on a foundation of mutual respect," keeping distance from military escalation.
Experts warn that coercive external interference could trigger severe instability across the Caribbean. William LeoGrande, a professor at American University, said in an interview with the Guardian that "the United States is focused on placating exiles on the ground, but it will be hard to get the desired result simply by starving the economy."
Christopher Sabatini, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, also said, "Cuba has a centralized and deeply rooted governing structure and is a country that strongly resists abrupt change," adding, "The illusion that external U.S. pressure alone can bring about political transition risks producing only extreme turmoil."