After U.S. President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum threatening to strike Iran's power grid while pressing for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran hit back, saying it would "destroy all U.S. and allied infrastructure in the Middle East."
On the 22nd, according to a compilation of reports by Iran's Fars News Agency and China's Xinhua News Agency, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which corresponds to Iran's current top operational command, issued a statement declaring a strong intent to retaliate against the United States. They warned, "If the enemy invades Iran's fuel and energy infrastructure, we will target all energy facilities, information technology (IT) equipment, and desalination infrastructure belonging to bases where the United States is stationed in the Middle East and to regimes allied with the United States." This came shortly after President Trump pressured that "if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened within 48 hours, we will strike and completely destroy Iran's power plants."
Iran did not back down in the face of Trump's warning; instead, it took a hard-line stance by even pulling out the extreme card of mutual destruction of key infrastructure. Experts agreed that if Iran actually strikes the desalination facilities it mentioned, it could lead to catastrophic consequences in the Middle East. Countries in the Gulf with desert climates rely almost entirely on large desalination plants that purify seawater for most of their drinking water. By their nature, these facilities occupy vast areas near coastlines and are highly vulnerable to missile or drone attacks. A representative of the water resources media outlet Global Water Intelligence told the AP, "Because desalination plants go through several stages, from intake to treatment to power supply, the destruction of even one of these points can halt entire production." Experts projected that even if a single plant zone stops operating for about a week, at least millions of people would face a drinking water shortage.
The destruction of energy facilities and information and communications networks also appears likely to cause widespread disruption to the global economic network. Iran has ample capability to mobilize pro-Iranian armed groups spread across the Middle East to launch simultaneous attacks on refineries in major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. David Michell, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned Syria's state news agency SANA, "If Iran simultaneously disrupts key facilities in the Middle East, a severe logistics crisis could hit worldwide." With supplies of crude oil and natural gas from the Middle East already cut off, the world is experiencing turmoil from a surge in energy prices. If, on top of that, communications networks such as global data centers in the Middle East are attacked, the paralysis of financial systems could overlap, likely exacerbating difficulties worldwide.
The consensus is that the United States, too, will find it hard to avoid massive economic and industrial damage. Beyond a rise in global energy prices, a combination of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure destruction could shake the U.S. military defense industry supply chain itself. Zahara Matticek, a researcher at the Modern War Institute at the U.S. Military Academy, told the U.K.'s Guardian, "A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is cutting off the supply of sulfur needed to extract critical minerals such as copper and cobalt, causing a paralyzing real-time problem across the U.S. defense industry," adding, "Weapon repair costs could more than double." This means the United States' warfighting capability could face structural limits, and the worst-case scenario of holes opening even in the defense networks of major allies could unfold.