As U.S. President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum threatening to strike Iran's power grid while pressing for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran hit back, saying it would "destroy all U.S. and allied infrastructure in the Middle East."
On the 22nd (local time), according to a compilation of reports from Iran's Fars News Agency and China's Xinhua News Agency, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran's top operational command, issued a statement declaring a strong resolve to retaliate against the United States. It warned, "If the enemy invades Iran's fuel and energy infrastructure, we will target all energy facilities, information technology (IT) installations, and desalination infrastructure belonging to U.S. bases in the Middle East and to regimes allied with the United States." The warning came shortly after Trump pressured Iran by saying he would "strike Iran's power plants and destroy them completely if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened within 48 hours."
Iran did not cower at Trump's warning; instead, it took a hard-line stance by brandishing the extreme option of the concurrent destruction of key infrastructure. Experts agreed that if Iran actually strikes the desalination facilities it mentioned, the Middle East could face catastrophic consequences. In the Gulf's desert climate, most countries depend entirely on large-scale desalination plants that purify seawater for drinking. By their nature, these facilities occupy vast coastal areas and are highly vulnerable to missile or drone attacks. A Global Water Intelligence representative told the AP, "Because desalination plants go through multiple stages from intake to treatment to power supply, disrupting even one point shuts down the entire output." Experts estimated that even if a plant zone halts operations for about a week, at least several million people could face a drinking water crisis.
The destruction of energy facilities and information and communications networks also appears likely to cause widespread disruption to the global economic web. Iran has ample capacity to mobilize pro-Iran militant groups spread across the Middle East to launch simultaneous attacks on major oil-producing nations' refining facilities, such as those in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. David Michel, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Syria's state news agency SANA, "If Iran simultaneously disrupts key facilities in the Middle East, the world could face a severe logistics crisis." The world is already experiencing turmoil from a spike in energy prices as Middle East oil and natural gas supplies are cut off. If global data centers and other communications networks in the region are also attacked, the added paralysis of financial systems could greatly compound worldwide difficulties.
Conventional wisdom holds that the United States, too, would find it hard to avoid massive economic and industrial damage. Beyond the global rise in energy prices, the combination of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure destruction could shake the U.S. defense industrial supply chain itself. Zahara Metisec of the Modern War Institute at the U.S. Military Academy told the U.K.'s Guardian, "A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is cutting off supplies of sulfur needed to extract critical minerals such as copper and cobalt, causing paralyzing real-time problems across the U.S. defense industry," adding, "Weapons repair costs could more than double." That would mean the United States' warfighting capability could hit structural limits, potentially ushering in a worst-case scenario in which even the defensive networks of key allies develop holes.