The United States has begun reviewing a phased drawdown of operations to wrap up the war with Iran as the conflict enters its third week. The move is seen as reflecting a judgment that the United States has achieved much of its initial military objectives, including neutralizing Iran's missile capabilities and blocking its nuclear facilities.
On the 21st (local time), Reuters and other outlets reported that President Trump told reporters at the White House that "the United States is very close to achieving its operational goals and is considering ways to gradually wind down the war." While this is seen as an attempt to stabilize international energy prices that have surged due to the war, there is also an interpretation that it opens a diplomatic off-ramp for Iran.
Behind the scenes, advance diplomatic groundwork for postwar arrangements has already begun. Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law and closest aide, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff are drawing up detailed plans for potential peace talks. Axios, citing a government official, said, "Trump's staff has begun preparing in case negotiations soon take shape."
The new proposal is expected to place reopening the Strait of Hormuz and handling Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium at the center of the agenda. Mediation is likely to be handled by Qatar, rather than Oman, which brokered past nuclear talks. Qatar has previously demonstrated its mediation capabilities, including during the Gaza Strip crisis.
Despite Washington's consideration of conciliatory measures, Iran, entering the third week since the outbreak of war, has begun to scale up the scope of its military provocations. On the 21st, for the first time since the war began, Iran fired two ballistic missiles with a range of 4,000 km, aiming at Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.-British base in the Indian Ocean. Israel's military authorities said the Iranian missiles struck as far as the Dimona area near its nuclear facilities.
As a result, within the United States there was analysis that, given the situation has already escalated with a long-range missile provocation, it is uncertain whether the new peace plan prepared by Kushner and others would be effective if it resembles the conditions presented in Geneva just before the war began.