As the fallout from the Iran war spreads across the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has taken the hard-line step of expelling Iranian diplomats stationed in the kingdom. After Iranian armed groups recently attacked Saudi Arabia's key energy infrastructure and the capital, Riyadh, the kingdom appears to have unveiled a tough response tantamount to a severing of diplomatic ties.
The two countries dramatically restored diplomatic relations in 2023 through Chinese mediation. But with less than three years passed, tensions have erupted again, and some say the global crude oil supply chain and the Middle East order are at a critical crossroads.
On the 21st (local time), according to a compilation of major foreign media including Reuters and the Times of Israel, the Saudi Foreign Ministry the previous day declared Iran's military attaché, deputy attaché, and three embassy staff stationed in the kingdom persona non grata and notified them to "leave Saudi Arabia within 24 hours." Persona non grata means "an unwelcome person," a diplomatic term referring to an individual shunned by the host country.
Saudi leadership raised the warning level to unprecedented heights, saying it would not rule out a military response against Iran. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said "trust in Iran has been shattered," and noted the kingdom would mobilize all means, including political, economic, and diplomatic leverage, to defend itself.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, who is in frequent contact with President Donald Trump, also cited former King Abdullah's advice to "cut off the head of the snake (Iran)," and has reportedly urged the U.S. government to deliver a lethal military strike against Iran, Gulf News reported. This aligns with past moves by Gulf states that argued the United States should be more forcefully involved regarding Iran's nuclear program.
Since the United States and Israel began a war with Iran, Iran has rained down hundreds of missiles and drones on Saudi territory, a U.S. ally. Saudi air defenses intercepted most of the attacks, but on the 22nd three ballistic missiles were detected around the capital, Riyadh, prompting the Ministry of National Defense to mount an emergency interception, as Iranian attacks continued. The Saudi government sees Iran's sustained attacks as a grave matter that could drive current bilateral relations into an irreversibly catastrophic state. The agreement to normalize ties reached by the two countries in 2023 collapsed four weeks after the war broke out.
Behind Saudi Arabia's ultra-hard-line response lies an energy security crisis that underpins the national economy. From the outset of the war, Iran persistently targeted energy facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh. On the 19th, it used drones to attack the Aramco-Exxon refinery at Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, halting crude loading operations. The strategy is to add turmoil to the global energy market and increase the burden on the United States and Israel.
Before Saudi Arabia, Qatar, which also has the strongest pro-U.S. orientation in the Middle East, saw its large-scale natural gas facilities attacked by Iran. Qatar immediately expelled Iranian military and security Directors staying in the capital, Doha, and forged a joint defense line with Gulf states.
Middle East experts said the crisis has put the Iranian regime in a severe fight for survival. Saudi Arabia is likely to strengthen military and economic coordination with the United States to fully contain Iran, its regional rival for hegemony. Sanam Vakil, Director General for the Middle East and North Africa at Chatham House, said in a report that "this conflict is an existential issue for the survival of the Iranian regime and is unlikely to end quickly." She added that "the strategy of mobilizing anti-U.S. and anti-Israel armed groups led by Iran has boomeranged, instead uniting the United States, Israel, and Gulf states."