There is speculation that the United States has rapidly deployed Marine forces to Kharg Island, Iran's key oil export hub, and could seize control of the entire island. The island is a critical node through which most of Iran's crude exports pass and is effectively regarded as the heart of Iran's economy.
According to foreign media including the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 18th local time, the U.S. Department of Defense is reportedly relocating about 2,000 troops from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), previously stationed in Okinawa, Japan, to the Middle East. Analysts say the United States is attempting to deploy the Marine Expeditionary Unit, a unit specializing in surprise attacks by sea and air, to an operation to seize Kharg Island and take control of Iran's southern coast.
Frank McKenzie, former commander of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), said, "U.S. forces effectively have two options," adding, "either destroy the (Kharg Island) oil infrastructure and inflict irreparable damage on the economies of Iran as well as the world, or seize the island and use it as a bargaining chip."
Kharg Island is a continental island of Iran in the Persian Gulf, located 25 kilometers from the mainland and about 483 kilometers northwest of the Strait of Hormuz. Its area is only 25 square kilometers, one-third the size of Ulleungdo, but it has large-scale crude storage facilities capable of loading up to 7 million barrels per day, earning nicknames such as "forbidden island" and "treasure island." Dozens of storage tanks are clustered on the southern side of the island, subsea pipelines consolidation Iran's large oil fields, and about 90% of Iran's crude exports are tallied as passing through the island.
Previously, when the United States struck Kharg Island, international oil prices rapidly extended gains. On the 13th, when U.S. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that "all military targets on Kharg Island have been completely destroyed," Brent, the international benchmark, surged and has held around $100 per Barrel. Trump added that "oil infrastructure would not be destroyed," but as severe anxiety spread, some suggest prices could soon soar to $150–$200.
Trump is seen as having considered a long-term seizure of the island. In a 1988 interview with the British daily the Guardian during his business career, he said, "If even a single bullet is fired at our ships, we will deliver a fatal blow to Kharg Island and take it," and given that he has emphasized the need for tariff policy since the 1980s, some analysts say the likelihood of pushing a military operation is also high.
In fact, if the island's oil facilities are exposed to airstrikes, the ripple effects are expected to spread beyond Iran to the world. That is because Iran could retaliate against nearby Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), triggering a chain paralysis of global supply chains. The region holds more than 30% of the world's crude reserves, and earlier, Iranian forces warned via state media that if Iran's oil and energy infrastructure were hit, they would attack all energy infrastructure in the Middle East.
Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute, a U.S. strategic think tank, noted, "Effectively, 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day of global oil supplies could disappear," adding, "If crude shipments across the Persian Gulf are halted altogether, international prices could exceed $150 per Barrel, and U.S. gasoline could rise to $5–$6 per gallon, fueling higher food prices."
If the war is prolonged by the deployment of ground troops, the global economy also appears unlikely to avoid severe damage. According to Goldman Sachs, if the war lasts more than five to six weeks, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states such as Qatar could fall by as much as 14%, a shock comparable to the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, some say crude exports would not be completely halted even if airstrikes on Kharg Island continue. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Iraqi forces repeatedly attacked the island, but Iran secured alternative routes such as small ports and temporary terminals and continued exports.
Meanwhile, some argue that China could become the biggest victim of the Kharg Island strikes. China is the main customer, buying more than 80% of Iran's seaborne oil exports, and most of the crude exported via Kharg Island also flows to China. China is currently said to be seeking to secure crude by using Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast instead of the Strait of Hormuz due to the blockade there.