As Iran expands its retaliatory attacks on neighboring Gulf countries, the Gulf states that once sought to improve ties with Iran have begun to view Iran's theocracy as a threat to their survival.
On the 18th, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, "Gulf countries now see the very existence of Iran's theocratic regime as a threat," adding, "After the war ends, they want the Iranian regime to be neutralized, or, if possible, completely dismantled so that the same pain will never be repeated."
The Israeli outlet Jerusalem Post also said, "As Iran continues attacks on Gulf countries, especially the United Arab Emirates (UAE), public opinion about the outlook could shift," adding, "This means countries that had appeared publicly very cautious about the outbreak of war and seemed to prefer de-escalation may now want Iran to be defeated through a long-term military operation."
Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are U.S. allies that host American bases. They have adversarial relations with Iran but have sought to improve ties to avoid armed clashes. Saudi Arabia normalized diplomatic relations with Iran in 2023 through China's mediation, and the UAE also reopened its embassy in Tehran in 2022.
However, the situation changed rapidly as the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran and the war began. On the 28th of last month, immediately after being attacked, Iran fired missiles and drones toward Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and others. At the time, Iran said it was not directly targeting the Gulf states but was striking U.S. bases in the region; in reality, civilian facilities in the Gulf countries suffered heavy damage.
In the case of the UAE, since the outbreak of the war it has suffered the greatest damage among Gulf countries, coming under more than 2,000 Iranian drones and missile attacks. More than 80% of the strikes targeted civilian infrastructure such as oil facilities, refineries, airports, ports, hotels, and data centers. Because of Iran's attacks, Dubai International Airport, which has competed for the status of a global "hub airport," also experienced operational disruptions for a time.
As Iran launched indiscriminate attacks on Gulf countries that were not directly involved in the war, the Gulf states gradually began to turn away from Iran. Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, said, "This is not a military engagement but an attack on a peaceful country that has worked tirelessly for diplomacy," adding, "A long-term political settlement must address all threats, including Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, and its network of regional proxies."
In particular, Iran's claim that its attacks targeted only U.S. bases in the region further fueled the anger of the Gulf states. Majed Al Ansari, adviser to the Qatari prime minister, stressed, "To be clear, since the start of Iran's attacks, the threats and attacks on civilian targets have never stopped." Thanks to advanced U.S.-made air defenses, the scale of damage could be reduced, but analysts say this has tilted the Gulf states further toward the United States.
The reason Gulf countries have come to hope for the complete collapse of the Iranian regime is that attacks have continued even as Iran's leadership has died one after another. In particular, if passage through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's crude oil shipments move, is disrupted as it is now, the damage to the Gulf states, which rely heavily on oil exports, would be enormous.
According to the WSJ, the Gulf countries are discussing as a way to pressure the Iranian regime to reopen the Strait of Hormuz having the United States seize, or at least be poised to seize, Kharg Island, through which more than 90% of Iran's oil exports pass. President Trump is also said to be considering deploying thousands of ground troops with control of Kharg Island, Iran's key crude export hub, in mind.
Muhanad Seloom, a professor at Doha Institute in Qatar, said, "The Iranian regime has crossed all red lines," adding, "It is now in everyone's interest, including the Gulf states, for the United States to bring the war to an end." He continued, "If the war ends now and Iran declares victory by claiming the United States was defeated, Iran will hold the entire region hostage and attack Gulf countries whenever it is under pressure."