As key figures at the core of Iran's power have been killed one after another in safe houses, signs have emerged that the internal security system that sustained them is shaking, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 18th local time.
According to the WSJ, agents of Israel's intelligence agency Mossad individually contacted Iranian security force commanders, warning, "We know all your movements as well as your family members' names," and, "If you do not take our side, you will meet the same fate as the leader." In actual recordings, some Iranian commanders were even heard pleading, saying, "I am already a dead man. Please help me."
With Mossad's psychological warfare added to the chain of assassinations of key figures, morale within the Iranian regime is plunging rapidly. In particular, the shock inside Iran doubled when Ali Larijani, secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and the core axis of Iran's security, died just four days after appearing in public. At the time, Larijani appeared wearing sunglasses and said, "A brave leadership does not lose," showing he was still in control. Larijani stood at the center of decision-making on war, diplomacy, and national security, and after Ali Khamenei's death had effectively emerged as Iran's "de facto leader."
Israel initially targeted Iran's command, but later expanded its strikes to sports facilities, checkpoints, and safe houses, focusing on the "collapse of internal control structures." Recently, it has expanded operations by concentrating strikes on Basij headquarters and command facilities to drive members outside and then tracking and attacking them. Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij militia, who died the same day as Larijani, was eliminated in this manner. After the headquarters building was blown up, Israel tracked Soleimani, who had taken refuge in a tent in the woods, to the end based on tips from Iranian citizens and killed him. Lately, it has even struck large sports facilities such as Azadi Stadium, which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia had used as alternative assembly points, eliminating hundreds of operatives at once.
The WSJ said, "With thousands of operatives killed, from senior leaders to lower-ranking members, reports are mounting that disorder is beginning to take hold within Iran." So far, Israel has said it has dropped more than 10,000 rounds of munitions on thousands of targets in total, including more than 2,200 targets related to internal security forces such as the IRGC and the Basij. It is also maintaining real-time strikes by monitoring checkpoints and motorcycle rapid-response units deployed throughout Tehran with drones around the clock. As a result, Iranian security personnel are hiding under bridges or in civilian residential areas to avoid airstrikes, the WSJ reported.
Some argue that while Israel's current operation has dealt a critical blow to the regime, there are limits to toppling a government through airstrikes alone. Farzin Nadimi, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said, "Historically, it is rare for a regime to collapse from airstrikes alone," adding, "If the regime survives, it will reemerge more daring and dangerous, and that will be a clear victory for the regime."