With former Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dead in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, and now even Ali Larijani, effectively Iran's security chief, killed, turmoil is deepening within Iran's leadership.
On the 17th (local time), the Guardian reported that Larijani's death is likely to be "a bigger reverse" than when Khamenei was lost early in the war. The BBC also said the impact of Larijani's death goes beyond the loss of a single senior official and could intensify a leadership crisis that may affect the course of the war and the stability of the Iranian state itself.
After Khamenei's death, Larijani had effectively emerged as Iran's "de facto leader." The Times of Israel said Larijani was a key figure in the regime after Khamenei died, noting he was the acting authority directly designated by Khamenei, and many regarded him as the Islamic Republic's de facto leader after Khamenei's death. Meir Ben Shabbat, head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, an Israeli think tank, said Larijani's status and influence far exceeded the official posts he held.
As secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Larijani stood at the center of decision-making on war, diplomacy and national security. In particular, he effectively served as "wartime commander in chief," and was known to have wielded major influence in crafting a strategy to convey to Gulf leaders that, if Iran were attacked, U.S. military bases on their soil would be considered legitimate targets.
Analysts say his death has effectively pushed an "diplomatic solution" to the Iran crisis further out of reach. According to the Guardian, Larijani was viewed as more trusted than Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian in delivering messages to Gulf leaders. Hatef Salehi, a conservative Iran-born political analyst, said on social media (SNS) that Larijani's absence at such a critical and dangerous time would cast a deep shadow over diplomacy and lower the chances of finding a low-cost political solution to end the war.
Anxiety over personal safety is also growing among Iran's leadership. The United States and Israel have signaled their intent to remove additional Iranian leaders. At a news conference that day, Israel Defense Forces Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Efi Defrin said, "We are striking the entire leadership of the Iranian regime," adding they would "track down Mojtaba Khamenei and ultimately neutralize" him. Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump also said regarding Mojtaba Khamenei's selection as Iran's supreme leader that "without our approval he will not last long."
Inside Iran, fears about the leadership's safety are indeed spreading. An Iranian official, speaking anonymously, told the New York Times (NYT) that they had received multiple calls from other officials worried about the safety of Iran's leadership as well as their own, adding that everyone is wondering who will be the next target. Another official said their body shook upon receiving the call reporting Larijani's killing, and noted a deepening fear that Israel will not stop until it eliminates Iran's leadership and brings down the Islamic Republic.
Some observers say Larijani's death could boost the clout of hard-liners in Iran. Sima Shine, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv and a former member of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, said Larijani was seen as a pragmatist able to work with both moderate politicians and hard-line military leaders, adding his death could empower hard-liners such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander and the current parliament speaker.
The Times of Israel also said Larijani's death does not mean the Iranian regime will completely collapse, noting that Iran's proxies Hamas and Hezbollah remain active despite Israel's series of decapitation strikes and operations against their leadership.