The U.S. administration of Donald Trump, which toppled the regimes of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro and Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has effectively singled out Cuba as its next target. The Trump administration is pressuring Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel to resign.
On the 16th, The New York Times (NYT), citing four anonymous sources, reported, "The Trump administration is trying to remove President Díaz-Canel from power," adding, "The U.S. sent a signal to the Cuban negotiating team that President Díaz-Canel must step down, and is leaving subsequent steps for the Cuban side to decide."
The U.S. pressure for Díaz-Canel's resignation appears to have arisen during negotiations between the two countries that began recently. One source said the Trump administration's request for resignation was not delivered as an ultimatum, but presented as a positive step to open the way for productive talks. The United States signaled that as long as he remains the leader, any negotiations would be difficult to achieve.
Cuban figures involved in the talks with the United States also agree there were problems with President Díaz-Canel's leadership, but are said to believe they need to find a way to drive change without making it look like the United States is dictating to Cuba. On the 13th, President Díaz-Canel confirmed that negotiations between the United States and Cuba had begun, saying they were "to resolve bilateral issues through dialogue."
The reason the United States is focusing on ousting Díaz-Canel is because he is classified as a "hard-liner" and is deemed unlikely to pursue the kind of economic reforms Washington wants. Díaz-Canel took office as president in 2018, succeeding Raúl Castro, and in 2021 rose to first secretary of the Communist Party. Although he nominally assumed the presidency as Castro's successor, analysts say he became a target for removal as Cuba's economic crisis deepened and an "exodus (mass departure)" occurred during his tenure.
Also, with the Iran war dragging on, President Trump, who faces midterm elections this fall, needs a visible diplomatic achievement. The NYT said, "The ouster of a top figure in Cuba's leadership could be a symbolic political win for President Trump," adding, "Through this, he could tell the American public he toppled the leader of a left-wing government that long stood up to the United States."
However, the Trump administration is not known to have pressed for separate measures against members of the Castro family, who still serve as key power brokers in Cuba. The NYT assessed that this aligns with President Trump's diplomatic line that emphasizes pressuring regime compliance rather than regime change.
The United States appears to be considering Raúl Castro's grandson as the next leader. Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro, reportedly held a secret meeting late last month with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who comes from a Cuban immigrant family. One source said that even after Díaz-Canel steps down, Rodríguez Castro is highly likely to continue leading the running of the government.
Still, some observers say the United States is unlikely to use military force to oust Díaz-Canel. President Trump has said, "Cuba looks ready to collapse. I don't think additional measures are necessary." Meanwhile, at the White House that day, he also said, "I believe I will have the honor of occupying Cuba," hinting at the possibility of the United States taking control of Cuba.
Ricardo Zúñiga, who took part in U.S.-Cuba negotiations during the Obama administration, said the ouster of Díaz-Canel offers a perfect opportunity to "reset" U.S.-Cuba relations. "If I were in Trump's position, I would have done the same," he said. "A ship's captain goes down with the ship, and right now the ship called Cuba is sinking." He added that Díaz-Canel was tapped for the presidency because he would not attempt rapid change, "and for that reason, in the current standoff with the United States, he is an easy figure to scapegoat."
Some warn that backlash could grow if the United States is satisfied with removing Díaz-Canel alone. Many conservative Cuban exiles in the United States are demanding a comprehensive change in Cuba's political system. Marlene Azor Hernández, a former University of Havana sociologist who went into exile in Mexico, said, "Removing him is necessary, but the entire Communist Party Politburo and GAESA, the business group linked to the Cuban military, must also be excluded from power."