Israel has sent ground forces into southern Lebanon, signaling another step of escalation in the Middle East war. Analysts say the operation, which directly targets Hezbollah amid clashes with Iran, could drive a prolonged conflict.
On the 16th (local time), Israel's Ministry of National Defense said it launched a ground operation in southern Lebanon. The operation is being carried out in preparation for a prolonged war, and Israel argues that Lebanese residents will not be able to return to the area until the Hezbollah threat is completely removed.
Southern Lebanon borders northern Israel and is known as an area of active operations by Hezbollah, a Shiite Islamist armed group that is part of the "axis of resistance" and is backed by Iran. Earlier, as the war intensified, Israel focused its attacks on this area.
Hezbollah declared its entry into the war on the 2nd after Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an Israeli airstrike, and it has kept up daily offensives. Hezbollah's forces are estimated at about 60,000, larger than the Lebanese regular army, and they are believed to possess roughly 10,000 weapons, including ballistic missiles, drones, and rockets.
After Hezbollah used hundreds of rockets and drones to strike Israel last week, Israel is seen as moving to uproot Hezbollah in response. Israel's defense minister, Israel Katz, said, "Hezbollah carried out attacks with hundreds of rockets and drones," explaining the reason for the move, and Israel Defense Forces Spokesperson Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani also said, "Hezbollah is trying to expand operations from Lebanon," adding that "it is dispatching hundreds of fighters from the elite Radwan unit."
Minister Katz believes the operation will be similar to the military campaign in Gaza triggered by the Israel-Hamas war. Israel currently controls more than half of the Gaza Strip and is stationing troops and maintaining its occupation in parts of Syria and the West Bank. Observers say the Israel Defense Forces are likely to fully occupy parts of Lebanese territory.
Some analysts say the bold move to deploy ground forces reflects the reality that armed groups like Hezbollah are difficult to eliminate through air power alone. Randa Slim, director of the Middle East program at the Stimson Center in the United States, said, "Whether it's ground war or air war, it is difficult to completely eliminate indigenous armed groups," adding, "The United States failed in Afghanistan, and Israel has tried the same against Hezbollah in Lebanon since 1982 but did not succeed."
In fact, Hezbollah has maintained strong offensive capabilities even as the war enters its third week. According to the Israel Defense Forces, it fired more than 200 rockets and missiles last week, and despite the Lebanese government's push to disarm it, it is believed to be continuing daily attacks numbering in the dozens. This effectively nullifies the cease-fire agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon in Nov. 2024.
Still, many are skeptical about whether this strategy of expanding multiple fronts at once is sustainable over the long term. The Israel Defense Forces rely heavily on reservists and have been at war for nearly two and a half years, leading to high fatigue, and they have already expended large quantities of interceptors essential for defending against rockets and missiles.
Ofer Gutterman, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, said, "The Israel Defense Forces can conduct multiple fronts simultaneously in the short term, but questions remain over the long term," noting, "It is uncertain whether this will yield tangible strategic results."
Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its airstrikes not only to the southern suburbs of Beirut but also to downtown areas and coastal tourist sites. According to Lebanese health authorities, at least 800 people, including civilians, have been killed in the attacks, and about 1 million Lebanese residents have fled.
Diplomatic moves to ease tensions are also emerging. According to Lebanese and French authorities, the Lebanese government is unusually considering direct, government-to-government talks with Israel, and Israel is reportedly open to the idea.