U.S. President Donald Trump proposed forming a "naval coalition" to forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz, but even traditional allies are extremely cautious about joining, fearing it could escalate into an all-out war with Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively at a standstill. With its narrowest point just 21 nautical miles (about 39 kilometers) wide, civilian tankers have completely halted passage as the prospect of Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks has become real.
On the 15th, local time, major outlets including Reuters and the AP reported that after asking five countries, including Korea, the previous day to dispatch warships to the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump strongly urged the formation of a multinational naval coalition in a White House statement to secure the waterway's safety. In the statement, Trump said, "We will no longer stand by Iran's atrocities that are holding the global economy hostage," adding, "Allies must take practical steps, such as sending warships, to protect their own energy."
Despite Trump's call, major countries are busy seeking their own survival routes. In particular, India's moves run directly counter to the U.S. plan. Indian media, including the Hindustan Times, reported that India is highly unlikely to join the U.S.-led multinational coalition. India is known to prefer protecting merchant vessels by independently using its own navy asset rather than mixing with other countries' forces.
For India, Iran is the second-largest supplier of oil. To protect its citizens in the Middle East and avoid losing as much as $51 billion (about 77 trillion won) in annual remittances, the Indian government has been maintaining close, behind-the-scenes contact with Iran's leadership from the early stages of a potential U.S.-Israel invasion of Iran. India has already achieved practical results, including obtaining exceptional passage rights from Iran for its own vessels.
European countries, too, are leaning toward direct transaction with Iran rather than joining U.S.-led military pressure. France and Italy are reportedly negotiating through informal channels with Iran to secure their energy volumes. Reuters said both countries avoided official confirmation. Türkiye already negotiated directly with Iran last week and obtained passage for one of its vessels. Major Turkish outlets said, "We are awaiting a positive response for the remaining 14 vessels currently halted in the blocked Strait of Hormuz."
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi said, "Iran will not beg for a cease-fire and will fight to the end to defend itself," adding, "Even if a U.S.-led coalition fleet comes, if it violates our sovereignty, it will become an immediate target."
Trump is also pressing South Korea and Japan through indirect channels to join the coalition. He reportedly went so far as to specifically ask Japan to dispatch minesweepers to remove Iranian naval mines believed to be laid in the strait. Minesweepers locate and remove underwater mines that can inflict catastrophic damage on warships and merchant vessels.
Securing safe lanes in the Strait of Hormuz is directly tied to energy security for South Korea and Japan. Still, a Blue House official said, "We are paying attention to President Trump's remarks. We will communicate closely with the United States and review carefully before making a judgment," keeping distance. Japan's Foreign Ministry also told NHK, "Japan decides its own response, and independent judgment is the basic principle," adding it would not immediately dispatch naval vessels at Trump's request.
Experts said South Korea and Japan's lukewarm reaction to Trump's demand stems from the difficulty of fully accepting the U.S. request given their long diplomatic ties with Iran. Already hit economically by the Trump administration's pressure to adopt "reciprocal tariffs" and a universal base tariff, they also find it hard to accept a call to embark on a military gamble that would put the lives of their own troops up as collateral.
In particular, analysts said that given South Korea's energy structure, which heavily depends on the Middle East, joining a coalition that antagonizes Iran could actually harm long-term energy security. Major outlets, citing experts, pointed out, "President Trump is trying to twist allies' arms with tariffs to mobilize military asset, but it will instead accelerate cracks in the alliance and fuel anti-American sentiment."
It is also uncertain whether military pressure will lead to a real normalization of logistics. The Strait of Hormuz is so narrow that even if warships escort merchant vessels at close range, it is hard to completely block Iranian anti-ship missiles or small drone attacks.
According to the Financial Times (FT) and others, London insurance market participants expect that "even with naval escorts, it will be difficult for merchant ships to resume operations as long as the risk of engagement remains." Tanker freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums have already soared to an out-of-control level, making it uneconomical at this point to transit the strait at previous price tags.
The military risks are also markedly higher than in past maritime escort operations. Mihai Hudisteanu, a Middle East energy analyst, told Al Jazeera, "The current conflict between the U.S.-Israel coalition and Iran is not a simple maritime dispute but an actual state of war," adding, "With Iran controlling the maritime supply chain and threatening the global ecosystem, if U.S. warships are deployed en masse to this battlefield, even a small unintended clash could trigger a World War III-level all-out war."