As the war between the United States and Israel and Iran enters its third week, Yemen's Houthi rebels, long seen as Iran's key proxy, appear to be holding back from direct participation. Analysts say the Houthis are recovering from damage sustained in U.S. airstrikes last year while maintaining a "standby" posture with a protracted war of attrition in mind.
The Iran-backed armed bloc known as the "axis of resistance" is expanding a "second front" by striking Gulf countries around Iran day after day, meeting the expectations of new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei. On the 14th (local time), the coalition of Shiite militias in Iraq, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), fired missiles at the rooftop helipad of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Earlier, Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has launched drones and missiles into northern Israel, said on the 12th that it conducted a joint operation with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and struck more than 50 targets across Israel.
Amid this, attention is focusing on the unusual wait-and-see stance of Yemen's Houthi rebels, which have boasted the most destructive power among axis of resistance forces. On the 13th, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi reaffirmed support for Iran in a Quds Day (an annual pro-Palestinian event) speech, saying, "The right path for the Islamic community is to resist the brutal aggression against the entire Iranian region and its people," but the Houthis have yet to take notable military action.
Previously, in Middle East conflicts, the Houthis carried out sporadic attacks and exerted overwhelming influence. When war broke out in October 2023 between Israel and the Palestinian militant faction Hamas, they launched more than 500 concentrated attacks on international commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea and on U.S. warships. However, early last year, after President Donald Trump returned to office, the second Trump administration redesignated the Houthis as a "foreign terrorist organization" and carried out large-scale airstrikes across Yemen, after which the two sides reached a truce.
Experts are split on why the Houthis are not jumping into the war right away. Farea al-Muslimi, a Middle East expert at the U.K. think tank Chatham House, assessed that the Houthis are still in a recovery phase after suffering significant damage from U.S. airstrikes last year. A U.S. attack in March last year destroyed much of the Houthis' communications network and mid-level command structure, suggesting a calculus that it is premature to embark on full-scale military activities.
At the time, Al-Masirah TV, operated by the Houthis, reported multiple airstrikes in Al-Jaraf in northern Sanaa and in the eastern Shabwa region, saying more than nine civilians were killed and nine were injured.
Some also see the Houthis' silence as an intentional strategy. Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen expert at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said, "It is highly likely that the Houthis and Iran are buying time with a protracted war of attrition in mind." Nagi said, "For the Houthis and Iran, the most important factor is ultimately time," adding, "The core strategy is to prolong the war to make it difficult for the United States, Israel and Gulf countries to hold out." He added, "The Houthis' restraint now is a calculated choice and is likely a fully coordinated strategy with Iran."
Earlier, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi hinted they were ready for battle, saying, "Our hands are on the trigger." Movements to reinforce forces have been detected along the Red Sea coast and around the western Yemeni port city of Hodeidah, and Houthi fighters are daily posting on social media (SNS) videos of missile launches and of burning the Stars and Stripes, raising tensions.
Mohammed Al-Basha, founder of risk analysis firm the Al-Basha Report, said, "Many are surprised the Houthis have not yet launched rockets or drones, but this is not disbandment or retreat," adding, "The Houthis are maintaining a state of combat readiness while watching the situation to avoid immediate retaliation by the United States or Israel."
Given that the Houthis have proved their combat power by repeatedly attacking Gulf countries, some expect they would push to prolong the war if they join. During the Hamas war, the Houthis indiscriminately fired missiles and drones at Israel, and some attacks reached the capital, Tel Aviv. In 2022, as an extension of Yemen's civil war, they attacked Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, killing three and injuring six, and in 2015, when Saudi Arabia led the Arab coalition into Yemen's civil war, they also fired missiles at Saudi Arabia, threatening oil facilities and infrastructure.
Experts also believe the Houthis still have unused military cards. If the United States strengthens tanker escorts in the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis could expand ship attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. The strait is a narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and is known as a point through which 10% of the world's seaborne oil shipments pass.
There is also speculation they could resume attacks on Saudi Arabia. Seth Crumlish, former staff director at U.S. Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT), said, "The Houthis still have the capability to attack oil facilities across Saudi Arabia," adding, "Iran could leverage this strategic leverage through its proxies if needed."
However, some predict the Houthis are unlikely to plunge into a full-scale war as they keep in mind the signing of a Saudi-Yemen peace agreement. Abdulghani al-Iryani, a senior fellow and Yemen policy expert, said, "This may be the Houthis' last chance to clinch the Yemen peace agreement that nearly reached the finish line with Saudi Arabia in 2023," adding, "Even if the Houthis take symbolic military action, it is unlikely they will jump into a full-blown war."
Meanwhile, Hamas, another force forming the axis of resistance, is emerging as a new variable by urging Iran to refrain from attacking neighboring countries. In a statement on the 14th, Hamas said that while it "recognizes Iran's right to respond to the aggressor," it appealed, "We ask our Iranian brothers to refrain from targeting neighboring countries," and called on the international community to work to end the war.