Taiwanese media raised an analysis that China has more leeway to use force over the Taiwan issue. As a result of the purge of China's top military brass, President Xi Jinping's command over the military has become more solid, increasing the likelihood that he could choose military action over Taiwan, the assessment said. It also predicted that Taiwan's presidential election in Jan. 2028 will be a major inflection point in cross-strait (两岸; China and Taiwan) relations.
According to Taiwan's Liberty Times on the 13th, Morimoto Satoshi, former Japan defense minister, said in a recent interview that if Xi's command authority is strengthened amid changes in China's internal power structure, it could become easier to choose military action against Taiwan. According to China's state-run Xinhua News Agency, the Central Military Commission, which initially had seven members including Xi, now consists of only two people — Xi and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin (张升民) — after the downfall of Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia (张又侠) and others. As the military authorities have pledged to implement the "CMC chairman responsibility system," displaying loyalty to Xi, his military command authority is seen as having become even more solid.
The military authorities also directly hinted at the possibility of using force. During the recent Two Sessions (两会; the National People's Congress of China and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference), China Ministry of National Defense Spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang (張曉剛) said at a press conference regarding the Taiwan issue, "We will pursue the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and best efforts, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force. We have options to take all necessary measures."
Morimoto predicted that if unexpected situations occur, such as Taiwan declaring independence or the United States making a clear pledge of military intervention, China could choose military action. Morimoto said, "In this case, China may not hesitate to use force," adding, "Our initial assessment that China would avoid armed reunification may have been wrong. Xi is said to have considered armed reunification in the past, and this resolve may not have changed."
He also noted that China has expanded gray-zone tactics in recent years — military actions that aim to achieve security goals through low-intensity provocations. According to Bloomberg, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said that between the 11th and 12th, five People's Liberation Army (PLA) military aircraft entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ), and three aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which effectively serves as a boundary. Morimoto said, "Chinese military aircraft are entering the ADIZ, warships are approaching nearby waters, and joint drills are continuing with participation by the coast guard and maritime militia," adding, "The United States views these moves as pre-practice premised on actual military action."
Meanwhile, the interview also mentioned a contrary scenario. It argued that China could pursue unification by using a variety of tools such as political, economic and information warfare instead of a direct military attack. Morimoto said, "In this scenario, it becomes harder for multiple countries, including the United States, to intervene, so it would be a more efficient way for China to achieve unification." Morimoto said, "Experts see that if China uses force against Taiwan, it would entail a massive expense and carry high risks, including low cost-effectiveness. Therefore, it is also highly likely that President Xi Jinping will not prioritize the use of force to achieve unification," adding, "In this case, the 2028 Taiwan presidential election could be an important turning point (that determines the solution to the Taiwan issue)."
The Taiwan issue is also likely to be addressed at the upcoming U.S.-China summit. According to Reuters, after President Donald Trump's visit to China from Mar. 31 to Apr. 2, the U.S. government is reportedly preparing an arms sale to Taiwan worth about $14 billion (about 21 trillion won), including advanced interceptor missiles. The package is intended to support Taiwan as China's military pressure grows, and if approved, it would be the largest-ever U.S. arms sale to Taiwan. Xi mentioned directly in a February phone call with President Trump that "the United States should be prudent in arms sales to Taiwan."