As the Iran war that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes enters its second week, some analysts say the conflict could drag on as Iran deploys a succession of high-destructive-power weapons. Iran has already begun in earnest to use weapons in and around the Strait of Hormuz, where it can greatly shake international oil prices.
According to major foreign media on the 11th (local time), Iran has recently started laying sea mines—known as "naval mines"—in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil shipments pass. Once laid, mines are difficult to remove and can drift with currents, making it hard to pinpoint their location.
Citing a source, CNN said, "The scale of mine-laying this time is not large, but Iran still has more than 80% to 90% of its small boats and existing mine-laying vessels left." This runs counter to U.S. President Donald Trump's claim that Iran has "no navy at all."
According to a U.S. congressional report last year, Iran is estimated to possess about 5,000 to 6,000 naval mines. Iran's mines are varied, including limpet mines that divers manually attach to hulls and moored mines that float just below the surface and explode upon contact with a vessel.
As concern grew over Iran's mine-laying, U.S. President Donald Trump said that day, "Overnight, we removed most of the (Strait of Hormuz) mine-laying vessels," adding that "59 to 60" mine-laying vessels were removed. However, CNN noted it has not been confirmed whether mines already laid were cleared. Considering that foreign media reported U.S. Central Command removed 16 mine-laying vessels the previous day, Trump may have confused the exact figures.
Moreover, mines are only part of the arsenal Iran has brought out around the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has its own navy, is believed to still be able to operate an attack network consisting of suicide boats carrying mines and explosives, and shore-based missile batteries. Because of this, one U.S. source described the Strait of Hormuz as a "valley of death."
Damage is already becoming a reality. According to foreign media, at least four cargo ships were hit by projectiles in and around the Strait of Hormuz that day. The Revolutionary Guard said Thai- and Liberian-flagged cargo ships each ignored its warnings and continued sailing, prompting attacks. The cargo ship One Majesty of Japanese shipping company Mitsui O.S.K. Lines was also struck by an unidentified projectile in the Persian Gulf area, sustaining minor damage.
Tankers under global watch have also begun to come under attack. According to Reuters, Iranian vessels attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters that day, causing fires, and one crew member is presumed dead. Earlier, the Revolutionary Guard warned that if attacks on Iran continued, it would "not allow even 1 liter of oil" to be shipped in the Middle East to the United States, Israel or their allies, and that threat appears to be materializing.
If Iran has brought out mines at sea, on land it has also started using cluster munitions. According to the New York Times (NYT), during this Middle East war Iran fired missiles loaded with cluster munitions toward Israel. Commander Doron Raviv of the Israel Police bomb disposal unit said on Feb. 28 that since the war broke out, Iran has fired more than 10 missiles carrying cluster munitions toward Israel.
Cluster munitions scatter small bomblets over a wide area when the warhead explodes, which can cause indiscriminate harm if used near civilians. For that reason, more than 100 countries, including the United Kingdom and France, have signed an international convention banning cluster munitions since 2008. However, Israel and Iran, as well as Russia, China and India, have not signed the convention.
The Guardian said, "A bigger threat than mines would be a large-scale direct attack by Iran, such as a swarm of suicide drones or a series of ballistic missiles launched from the coast at ships," adding, "Even a single missile or drone breaching the defenses could severely damage or sink a tanker."