Diplomatic tensions between the United States and Spain are escalating after the Spanish government refused to let the U.S. use American bases in Spain for strikes on Iran. Analysts say Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's political calculus played a decisive role.
On the 3rd (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a hardline step of cutting off trade with Spain for denying the use of military bases essential to the Iran strike operation. During a bilateral meeting that day, Trump, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz before him, instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to "immediately cut off all trade transaction with Spain," while Merz said Spain, which refuses to increase defense spending, "must meet the standards for allied security."
Earlier, Sánchez said he would not allow the use of the Rota naval base and the Morón air base in the southern autonomous region of Andalusia for the Iran strike operation. The two bases are strategic hubs jointly operated by the United States and Spain. The United States sought to use them to carry out operations against Iran, but Sánchez reportedly flatly refused, saying the military operation was "a perilous intervention that violates international law."
Observers say Sánchez's tough stance is influenced by Spain's domestic political situation. The ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party led by Sánchez has been suffering falling approval ratings after a string of sexual harassment cases led to resignations or dismissals, and Sánchez himself has faced corruption allegations, putting him under pressure to step down and call an early general election.
Indeed, Spain saw large-scale anti-government protests last year calling for Sánchez's resignation. On Dec. 12, the number of demonstrators gathered in the capital, Madrid, was estimated at 40,000 by the ruling party and 80,000 by the People's Party, the largest opposition and the force leading the rallies. José Luis Ábalos, a close confidant of Sánchez and a former transport minister, was just arrested on charges of taking kickbacks in government contracts during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the prime minister's wife and brother have also been indicted in cases tied to embezzlement of public funds and corruption.
In this context, Sánchez appears to be trying to highlight his image as a leader defending Spain's sovereignty and social democratic values through confrontation with the United States. He likened the current U.S. strikes on Iran to the U.S.-led Iraq War in 2003, reviving the "No War" slogan that swept Spain's anti-war protests at the time. By rallying the public who opposed the war against former Prime Minister José María Aznar, who supported it, he is seeking to reverse the mood with a move to defend national sovereignty against the United States.
Sánchez has also actively challenged President Trump in other policy areas, including increases to defense spending. For example, Spain has rejected the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defense spending target of 5% of GDP, insisting "5% is incompatible with our welfare system or worldview" and vowing to maintain expenditure around 2.1%. He refused even as Trump continued to press, saying "Spain is free-riding on security."
Sánchez has also taken a confrontational stance toward U.S. anti-immigration policies and foreign policy. In an op-ed for the New York Times (NYT) this year, he indirectly criticized U.S. immigration enforcement while contrasting it with Spain's policy to legalize undocumented residents, and he also opposed the U.S. operation to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, calling it "a dangerous precedent."
In foreign strategy, Sánchez has pursued an independent course by drawing closer to China. Spain has expanded efforts to attract Chinese investment in sectors such as automobile manufacturing and renewable energy, adopting a line that strengthens economic cooperation with China, and Sánchez has argued that the European Union should set its own standards in relations with China rather than simply following the U.S. position.
While Trump, increasingly irritated, has pulled out the trade cutoff card against Spain, it is unclear whether the move will be effective. If bilateral trade is halted, the United States, which runs a surplus with Spain, is expected to take the hit. Last year, the two countries' trade totaled about $47 billion, with the U.S. recording a trade surplus of about $4.8 billion.
It is also unclear whether the United States can impose separate unilateral sanctions on Spain. In the past, Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose across-the-board tariffs on certain countries' goods, but the U.S. Supreme Court last month curbed the authority to levy tariffs on that basis. While other statutes that impose tariffs on specific industries could be used, it is questionable whether Spain can be sanctioned separately under the European Union's single market system.
Even if sanctions on Spain are realized, they could boomerang under the European-level Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), known as a "trade bazooka." The ACI allows wide-ranging trade restrictions, including on services and foreign direct investment, against third countries that economically threaten the EU or its member states. The European Commission has already expressed support for Spain, saying "a threat to a member state is a threat to the EU as a whole."