As U.S. President Donald Trump vowed on the 9th local time that the war with Iran would soon end, Iran instead is expanding the front by fiercely striking major energy facilities in neighboring countries with drones and missiles.
With the two countries' calculations starkly diverging, this war is showing signs of turning into a quagmire with no exit, contrary to President Trump's assurance.
According to Reuters and Al Jazeera on the 10th, the United States and Israel, now on the 10th day of airstrikes, are continuing large-scale raids across Iran, including the capital, Tehran, but Iran's leadership is not yielding. Facing the offensive by the United States and Israel backed by overwhelming firepower, Iran's leadership has set a strategy to paralyze key energy routes and trigger a chain shock in global financial markets to overcome the pressure instead of compromising. The idea is to force the United States to back down first by making it unable to withstand enormous economic damage.
The United States expected that massive bombing would spark a huge anti-government revolution within Iran and a flood of demands for a leadership change. But in reality, things are moving in the exact opposite direction from what the U.S. administration anticipated. Although Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iranian society is unexpectedly solid. Led by Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Iran's new leadership swiftly put forward Mojtaba Khamenei as the next supreme leader on the 9th, filling the power vacuum. The Revolutionary Guard, which closely protected Khamenei, is also firmly maintaining control.
According to major outlets, shops and banks in key Iranian cities, including the capital, Tehran, are all operating normally. There are no signs of the large-scale anti-government protests or military defections the United States expected. The massive external threat is instead triggering a powerful national rally-around-the-flag effect that is uniting the Iranian people. Major security outlets and experts, including the Middle East Institute (MEI), say Iranians, who have long endured Western economic sanctions, have developed strong immunity to external attacks. The United States' thorough misreading of Iran's internal cohesion has emerged as the most important variable that will determine the course of the war.
Iran's strategy is clear and unabashed. The most efficient scenario for Iran is a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while persistently attacking major energy hubs in neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The intention is to disrupt global oil and natural gas supply chains, drive energy prices sharply higher, and burden economies around the world, including the United States, Asia and Europe. Behind this lies a calculated plan to maximize economic damage—regardless of short-term military outcomes—to raise voter fatigue in U.S. politics ahead of the midterm elections in November.
Cyberattacks and the use of proxies are also core asymmetric capabilities Iran has prepared for a long war with the United States. Instead of deploying regular troops directly to the front, Iran is actively mobilizing a network of pro-Iran armed groups spread widely across Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. These armed proxies carry out guerrilla-style strikes across the Middle East, dispersing U.S. and Israeli defensive assets and adding to their fatigue.
At the same time, Iran is massively expanding the cyber front by deploying state-backed professional hacking units. According to U.S. security outlet HS Today, U.S. security authorities warned that Iran is highly likely to attempt destructive cyberattacks in retaliation targeting critical national infrastructure such as power plants, water resources facilities, financial systems and major transportation networks. Hacking critical national infrastructure is regarded as an effective means of causing social chaos and enormous economic damage to an adversary without crossing the threshold of physical military conflict.
International diplomacy and security experts said that as Iran, determined to fight to the end, clashes head-on with the United States, which aims for an early end to the war, the global economic and security landscape is rapidly sinking into uncertainty. Fawaz Gerges, a London School of Economics professor, told Reuters of Iran's situation, "Iran's leadership is now engaged in an existential struggle for national survival." He added, "Iran's leadership sees this war as an all-out fight to the bitter end," and "they are prepared to bring their entire sacred edifice crashing down on their heads."
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, also said that amid the unprecedented crisis of the beheading of the supreme leader, Iran's choice to fight to the end heightens the risk of extreme action more than ever. "Iran now is like a wounded animal bleeding," he said. "That's why it is far more dangerous and unpredictable than at any time in the past."