As the war between the United States and Israel and Iran escalates, not only the countries involved but also the civilian infrastructure of neighboring countries is being hit. In particular, the targets are desalination plants, known as the "lifeline" of desert nations. The United States is striking Iran's desalination plants, and Iran is attacking desalination plants in neighboring countries, raising concerns that drinking water supplies across the Middle East will be disrupted.
On the 8th (local time), according to major foreign media, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the previous day that the United States attacked a desalination plant on Kish Island, disrupting drinking water supplies to 30 villages. The next day, the Bahrain government said an Iranian drone attacked a desalination plant, causing property damage. The New York Times (NYT) reported that the current operating status of both facilities has not been confirmed.
When the United States and Israel carried out airstrikes on Iran on the 28th, Iran immediately struck back by launching suicide drones at neighboring countries. In the process, some airports and hotels were damaged, and now desalination plants have been added to the target list. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) said, "With this attack on desalination plants, the range of infrastructure targeted in the war has expanded," adding, "It is seen as a step-by-step escalation that introduces a new risk in a region where many countries have limited freshwater resources."
Desalination plants that remove salt from the waters of the Persian Gulf are a key source of drinking water for millions of people in the Middle East. In Bahrain, which was hit by Iran's drone attack, the drinking water of its 1.6 million people depends almost entirely on desalination plants. According to the AP, about 90% of Kuwait's drinking water is supplied through seawater desalination, while Oman relies on desalination for about 86% and Saudi Arabia about 70%.
Ed Cullinan, Middle East editor at Global Water Intelligence (GWI), an international water industry information and analysis organization, explained that desalination plants consist of multiple stages, including intake systems, treatment facilities, and energy supply, and that if any part of the process is damaged, production can stop. With about 5,000 desalination plants across the Middle East supporting the region's drinking water supply, Iran's attacks are highly likely to lead to disruptions in drinking water supplies.
Michael Christopher Low, a professor at the Middle East Center at the University of Utah, said, "People think of Saudi Arabia and its neighbors as oil states, but I call them 'saltwater kingdoms,'" adding, "Desalination plants are both a monumental achievement of 20th-century Middle Eastern states and a vulnerability."
Some say that strikes on desalination plants could even lead to an existential crisis for Middle Eastern countries. The NYT reported, "Desalination infrastructure is among the most vulnerable military targets in the region, and without it, the giant cities of the Gulf would effectively collapse." The AP likewise reported, "Without desalination plants, major cities would not be able to sustain their current population sizes."
In fact, according to a 2010 analysis by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), attacks on desalination plants could trigger national crises in several Gulf countries, and if key equipment were destroyed, supply disruptions could last for months.
Many Gulf countries hold strategic water reserves, but smaller states like Bahrain are believed to be able to exhaust their reserves within days if production capacity is damaged. Among Gulf countries, only Saudi Arabia, the largest, is assessed to be able to withstand attacks on water supplies relatively longer than its neighbors.
As Iran's attacks expand to energy facilities in neighboring countries, instability in drinking water supplies is expected to continue for the time being. David Michel, a senior fellow for water security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), explained that many Gulf desalination plants are physically integrated with power plants through combined heat and power systems, so if the power infrastructure is attacked, it can also affect water production. He said, "Even if some facilities are connected to the national grid and have backup supply routes, a failure at one point can cascade through the interconnected system as a whole."